主题：【问题】美国会改变遏制和威慑战略直接对中国进攻吗 -- wqnsihs
家园 no need to bet. 2nd dip is coming. After the summer of 2010.
The crisis is far from over. When Europe and America are in the 2nd dip, China export will pick up the signal quickly.
wxmang might have not foreseen that.
家园 事实就是这样，相信有二次探底的都不会和我打这个赌。 wxmang对二次探底一直是半信半疑的，他的长处是对中国经济的真实情况十分熟悉，河里无人能比。但预测经济走势不是他的长处。
家园 give this to him Whitney may have set up shop on her own, but maintaining her credibility also depends on whether her forecasts continue to come true. It looks like there’s at least a chance of that. While she is currently one of the most outspoken bears on the Street, her assessments are similar to those of academic economists. At the annual meeting of the American Economic Association in January, Reuters reported that “experts from a range of political leanings were in surprising agreement when it came to the chances for a robust and sustained expansion: They are slim.”
--Agree with you. Good managers usually get buried under daily administration and are short on long-term sight.
家园 板凳旁观 我也认为wolfgan过于悲观了点。相比于其他国家政府，中国政府的执行力是没的说的。中国政府的管制力也不是其他国家政府能比得上的。
虽然这两年似乎大伙儿意见似乎是家宝总理应对不完美，（我仍然认为他的应对相当不错，08年年初需要对狂热的经济强行进行冷却，不然事情更糟糕）但是中国政府调整的速度实在太让人惊叹了，180度U turn，从银根紧缩到4万亿项目的推出... 一夜之间就这么执行下去了。其他国家的应对措施相比而言，速度力度都不是这么让人赞叹的。
不可否认，利益集团的存在会降低政府的执行力度，中国和全世界其他国家一样都有利益集团。但是，相对于美国，欧洲，数百年历史形成的各种各样的利益集团比起中国这才立国60年的国家里面存在的利益集团... 谁的干扰力会更大呢?
过两年过来看赌局结果 :)
家园 那好，我们拭目以待。
家园 文革的邓公 在那样的环境都不言败，你就知道什么是体制问题了．那样的一个全计划的时代都能扭转过来．经过这么一次深该的洗礼，只要你做错了，就肯定会有人站出来．当然，什么都不是一天建成的．
