主题：【原创】四面楚歌之美国篇 美国金融之庞氏局 -- 井底望天
家园 宝推 感觉中国高层的问题不小啊，中宣部的倒行逆施，金融业的国际接鬼。。。
2 枚 通宝已收。通宝推荐已被记录。被推荐帖会以适当的方式被推广
家园 【原创】四面楚歌之美国篇 美国金融庞氏局之九 九
不过考虑到外汇兑换率和不同币值利息才是最大的赌台，而这个赌台里，还有一个最大最大的潜在客户，没有被正式拉下台，只能偷偷的少数赌一赌外围，那么如果可以把这个大赌客拉进赌场，美国的金融界就永远有饭吃，有佣抽了。
这个大客，就是世界经济排名不久就会变成第二位的中国。要把中国拉进金融衍生品的赌台，就需要把中国金融大门的两个大闸打开。这两个大闸，一个是资本账户管制，一个是央行干预下的货币兑换上下限。用一句话来说，就是要实现人民币“在资本账户无管制下的自由浮动”。
这就是中国人民银行为未来三年开出来的改革目标，就是要在三年内，达到中国金融门户大开，为维持美国金融界的利润，帮助他们在中国的实体经济上吸血。这就是人民币国际化，在某些人的心目中的真实意义。
当然有人会说，如果俺们自己搞一个金融业，那么就是说，让俺们自己实体经济的血，让俺们自己的大国有金融银行去喝，那不就行了？
岂不谈，现在的几大国有银行中间，被外资银行控股的数目，难道金融改革的自由化思路，会让中国自己的（哪怕是外资金融界已经木马进来）金融业独吃？看人家不在WTO告死你。
就算是中国自己的金融业独吞，那对中国整个经济发展有什么好处呢？左手钱转移到右手，没有增加任何社会财富创造，就是在规则上玩一把花招。除非就是中国自己也变成一个金融吸血经济，然后让实体经济外流，搞产业空心化，让人家越南等等东南亚国家去搞实体生产，俺们学习美国，将来只吸血。
这个看起来，不太可能，因为吸血鬼只能是一小撮，被吸血的倒霉蛋，不光是数目要多，还是要块头够大。而中国自己内部的竞争，就是上海看着香港这个吸血鬼，吸完大陆这个大块头之后，还没来得及，抹干嘴唇上的血，就开始忙着骂大陆又怎么怎么落后了，而想取而代之了。
被格林斯潘、鲁宾、萨默斯等人，一手扶持起来的美国金融衍生品产业，其实就是世界经济的一个庞氏局而已，是美国精英们为美国经济寻找的出路。但是这个局，至少在2008年，把美国和世界经济都打得满地找牙，按照巴菲特的说法，就是大家挨了一颗“金融原子弹”。
中国虽然没有独善其身，因为世界经济一损俱损，制造业受到了很大的冲击，但好歹因为自己的防空洞做得还不错，算是没有被原子弹给摧毁。不过不用担心，“人民币国际化”的大旗下，如何把这个防空洞给撤了，倒是中国人民银行里面的主要考虑。
这里俺们先看一下全球利息和外汇为基础的合同：
图一 全球利息和外汇金融衍生品合同
可以看出来，自从2004年之后，这些合同的增长速度有多快。
按照国际掉期和衍生品联会（International Swaps and Derivatives Association）在2009年9月15日的最新数据，2009年上半年的信用违约合同，从年初的38.6万亿美元下降到31.2万亿美元，跌幅是19%。而如果俺们从2008年中的54.6万亿美元来计算，那么一年就是跌了43%，差不多折损了一半。
俺们中国人常说，堤内损失堤外补，那么这个因为美国房地产市场给搞臭了的信用违约合同，要到外面的什么地方补回来呢？
上面那张图里的利息和兑换率为基础的金融衍生品合同，去年中到了历史高潮的464.7万亿美元，但在金融危机打击下，年初跌到了403.1万亿美元，但2009年上半年，则增加了3%到414.1万亿美元，涨了11万亿，算是补回来信用违约合同的7.4万亿。
可以想象一下，当中国放开人民币完全自由兑换，那些必须用人民币支付内部成本，但不用人民币结算出口国际市场的厂家，就要考虑对冲汇率风险，向金融机构交保护费了。而这些收你保护费的金融机构，自己又是外汇市场上，冲击外汇合同的黑手，总之你那些钱基本算是白送的。
这个还是出口这一拨，没有加上进口那一拨，因为要用美元从外面进口原材料和能源等资源，一样要考虑外汇风险。
即使人民币可以在这以后的3年，做到部分国际结算，那还是有相当大的一部分贸易，估计还是会以美元和欧元来结算，那么作为一个主要的制造业大国的中国，放开人民币自由兑换后，自然就要负担起大部分的金融衍生品合同的“服务”对象了。
如果按照中国人民银行的改革方案，放开资本账户管制，那么中国的企业，就开始有机会到海外融资，就是说，可以到任何比中国国内自己的贷款利息低的国家，比如说美国、欧盟和日本等等，去借钱拿回中国了。
从中国金融界的主要思路来看，人家是很愿意保持人民币基准利率，比美国联储局、欧洲中央银行和日本中央银行高几个百分点的。那么很显然，中国企业在海外借钱的成本，自然要比在自己国内借钱成本低，这些企业自然就会到外面借钱了。
通宝推：好知明言,肥狐,李根,家园 井兄对彭博社这篇报道提到的人和事怎么看？ 也许神仙驴和老广也会有独到的见解，这里先一并谢过了。
Wire: BLOOMBERG News (BN) Date: Sep 24 2009 12:01:21
Liu He as China’s Larry Summers Makes Politburo Appreciate U.S.
By Bloomberg News
Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Two days after the collapse of
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. a year ago, an adviser sent by
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao met with a group of Harvard
University scholars to help shape his country’s response.
On March 30, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and
National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers separately
made time for the same man, Liu He, on the day the Obama
administration forced the ouster of General Motors Corp. Chief
Executive Officer Rick Wagoner.
Top-level access in Washington and Beijing gives Liu, a 57-
year-old graduate of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, a
pivotal role in the U.S.-China economic relationship. His
mission was to convey American sensibilities on the depth of the
U.S. financial crisis to Wen, said Anthony Saich, a professor at
the Kennedy School who attended the Sept. 17, 2008, meeting in
Cambridge, Massachusetts. It was part of a fact-finding tour
that included stops in New York, Washington and San Francisco.
“He’s a very sophisticated thinker, very analytical,”
said Saich, who said the meeting also included Harvard
economists such as Jeffrey Liebman, now a White House budget
official. “He’s a key person in preparing reports that are not
only going to the premier but also to the general secretary of
the party,” President Hu Jintao.
When Liu returned to Beijing from the September trip, his
report was made available to senior leaders, according to a
person familiar with the situation whose job prevents him from
speaking about Chinese officials publicly.
While it isn’t known what Liu reported, a Chinese response
to the crisis wasn’t long in coming. On Nov. 9, China announced
a 4 trillion-yuan ($586 billion) stimulus, which helped the
economy ride out the worst of the financial turmoil.
‘China’s Larry Summers’
“Liu He is one of only a few Chinese officials who can
speak the language of international finance,” said Cheng Li, a
senior fellow at Washington’s Brookings Institution who met Liu
in March. “He’s China’s Larry Summers.”
Unlike Summers, a frequent guest on U.S. television talk
shows, Liu avoids publicity, operating within a secretive
decision-making apparatus inside the burnt-red walls of
Beijing’s Zhongnanhai leadership compound. At least 10 people
who know him say he is quiet and modest. He turned down four
interview requests for this story.
Liu’s title since 2003 has been deputy director of the
office of the Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic
Affairs. Participants include Wen, Vice Premier Wang Qishan and
People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan, according to
China experts and non-governmental Web sites.
Pensions and Currency
To generate ideas for the leading group, Liu convenes
meetings of economists, bankers and government officials to hash
out options on everything from pensions to the value of the
yuan, according to a Chinese economist who has participated.
The economist, who asked not to be named because of the
sessions’ sensitive nature, described them as freewheeling and
devoid of ideology.
“They will pick some hotel in a suburb of Beijing, all
these people would show up, and Liu will say ‘We’re interested
in exchange-rate policies, talk,’” said Victor Shih, a
professor at Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois, and
author of the 2008 book “Factions and Finance in China.”
The leading group makes recommendations to the country’s
cabinet, the full 25-person Politburo or its elite nine-member
standing committee, led by Hu, 66, on whether to pull the
trigger on government policies, the Chinese economist said.
Top Members
Liu, who holds the rank of vice minister, also gathers
ideas from the Chinese Economists 50 Forum, a non-governmental
group he founded in 1998 that parlays academic research into
policy solutions. Members include Zhou and Lou Jiwei, the
chairman of China’s $297.5 billion sovereign wealth fund.
Liu spent much of his career in the State Planning
Commission, the agency that formerly set prices for everything
from bicycles to grain, according to his online biography. It
now writes industrial policy under a new name, the National
Development and Reform Commission.
A former soldier and factory worker who was sent to
Manchuria in the midst of China’s 1966-1976 Cultural Revolution,
Liu helped draft the five-year plans that underpinned China’s
economy. He has been a Communist Party member for more than
three decades, the biography says.
In a chapter from a 2008 book Liu wrote assessing China’s
30 years of economic openness, he praised the “grey area” the
country has found, moving toward a market economy without
“blindly” mimicking Western models.
No Extremes
“Liu’s economic philosophy is pragmatism,” the Brookings
Institution’s Li said. “He will not be obsessed with two
extremes. One is market fundamentalism and the other is the
previous planned economy, which completely failed.”
He has that in common with Summers’s great rival, Joseph
Stiglitz, a Nobel-prize winning economist at New York’s Columbia
University who served as chairman of the Council of Economic
Advisers under President Bill Clinton.
Stiglitz, 66, has praised China for its crisis response,
which focuses on government-funded investment in roads, bridges
and factories. At a May 13 forum in Beijing, Stiglitz said China
“has taken very rapid action to address the crisis” and may
emerge as “a winner.”
After the Cultural Revolution delayed Liu’s education, he
entered Beijing’s People’s University in 1978, earning a
master’s degree in economics, his biography said.
Liu studied management at Seton Hall University in South
Orange, New Jersey, in 1992-1993 and spent the next two years at
Harvard, earning a master’s degree in public administration in
1995, according to school records.
“One got the sense of an individual whose entire resume
had prepared him for his difficult tasks,” said Dennis Wilder,
who until January was Asia director at the White House National
Security Council and met Liu in March. Wilder now is a visiting
fellow at the Brookings Institution.
“He would be an extremely strong player in the game of
bilateral poker: well grounded in the technical issues, non-
polemic, and with an in-depth understanding of the United
States,” Wilder said.
本帖一共被 1 帖 引用 (帖内工具实现)家园 中文名？ 这篇文章值得一读。
http://www.tnr.com/article/economy/peking-over-our-shoulder
- 复 中文名？
家园 中国人终于开始用美国的操作手法和美国面对面干上了 和大象跳舞，果然是有难度的。
- 复 中文名？
家园 读了两遍。感慨很深。 没想到 Renee Fleming 也为了国家利益献身了。。。
老实说，我看了之后心里发寒。老美为了营造和谐的气氛拉拢土共（或者现在应该叫洋共、奶共？），真是费尽心机。文章作者在字里行间流露出来的情绪也很值得玩味。我觉得至少有两点：一、对国内的鹰派势力说服教育，“俺这不是在向邪恶的共产中国低头，俺这是在为了渡过危机而用手段”。二、把土共玩弄于股掌之间的踌躇满志：“小样，一群没见过世面的土包子，俺用弗奈明牌奶茶迷死你们！”
其中形容土包子们见美女时的惊讶真是惟妙惟肖，一个 gasp 让俺想起来美国电影里猥琐日本人的形象。呵呵呵。
美国的“中国通”在为美国谋划中国出力。中国如胡士泰那样的“外国通”却在为里通外国而前仆后继。不知道说啥好了。。。
两个问题。
一、文中所提中国卫生部破坏阻挠扩大医保的医疗改革，有这事吗？怎么从来没有听说过？
二、刘鹤所参加的“中国50人经济家论坛”好像河里有过讨论（忘了是老广还是您了），这个论坛代表的大致是什么立场观点？
先谢过了。
家园 精英都是捞过国界的 所以嘛，可以理解，但是指望就别指望了。能够指望的只有一种人，打江山的第一代人，之后几代人就越来越不行了，反正生下来就衔着金钥匙。也是为啥发难的往往是少壮派，少壮派被压着兼精英花天酒地，能不恼火嘛。
- 复 中文名？
家园 谢井大推荐好文 While reform has been on China's agenda for years, the pushback from interest groups can be intense--the country's own ministry of health has been known to sabotage expanded health coverage over parochial objections. Which is to say, absent some powerful impetus, reform is the kind of thing the Chinese always recognize they should do, even seem to want to do at times, but which they never get around to pursuing in earnest.The beauty of the recession.....That leaves the Chinese with little choice but to move ahead on their reform agenda....... If nothing else, this would explain the unusual Chinese receptiveness at the S&ED to ideas for boosting domestic demand--such as bank liberalization that would pay depositors a higher interest rate.
----今年中美之间的互动，可以说是“外交是内政的延伸”的最好示范。
- 复 中文名？
家园 驴老的答复在此。 链接。
多谢井兄推荐的文章，很有料啊。
家园 金融资产价格的稳定性比金融自由化更重要 而金融衍生产品则是不断的增大资产的价格波动的振幅，以方便那些取得了定价权的机构获益
所以，对于西方学界提出的自由化的理论，中国可以用稳定性这个词语来反驳他们
就如同西方提出人权理论以后，中国则提出了生存权发展权是第一人权的概念反唇相讥
这样就一方面照顾了西方的面子，一方面夺得了话语权
家园 【请教】人民银行未来三年改革目标具体内容是什么 出处也请兄台赐教