主题：【原创】格鲁吉亚危机3：萨卡什维利的高空走钢丝演砸了 -- 独孤鸿影
家园 中国和美国的关系，不可能好过美国和欧盟
家园 还有中国 flower
Please check the SCO special reports: China has already provided a strong support to Russia. If China stands up and condemns Sam directly, that is equivalent a declaration of a war.
On the issue related to the creation of a global anti-missile defense system, they stressed that the establishment of such a system will not help in maintaining a strategic balance, runs counter to international efforts towards arms control and nuclear non-proliferation, and is not conducive to enhancing trust among countries and regional stability.On the issue of South Ossetia, the SCO members expressed their deep worries over the tense situation triggered by the South Ossetia conflict, and called on relevant parties to solve existing problems peacefully through dialogue, strive for reconciliation and push for negotiations.The SCO leaders welcomed the six-point proposal on solving the conflict which was reached in Moscow on Aug. 12, expressing their support for Russia's positive role in promoting peace and cooperation in the region.
On the prevention of conflicts, the leaders pledged to abide by the UN Charter and relevant UN Security Council resolutions and basic norms governing international law in the process.
- 复 还有中国
家园 感觉中国是在玩平衡术， 通过对话和平，争取和解和推动谈判，这句话美俄都可以有自己的解读，中国也可以有自己的解释，不过就我个人的看法，中国暗地里是支持俄罗斯的，一个强大的俄罗斯不符合中国的利益，但是那是以后的事情，至少现在，俄罗斯分担了中国的压力
家园 需要讨论‘强大’ 俄国自彼得改革以来，大概仅有列宁的苏俄时代在政治上和经济上短暂地比现在虚弱。而俄罗斯民族的生存危机比历史上任何时候都要显著。过去二十年的俄罗斯，比《辛丑条约》至北伐前夕的中国好一点，有限。国家大到别人一口吞不下，所以继续存在，但是对内失去民族凝聚力，失去前进动力，对外失去一切问题发言权。当西方人开始讨论俄罗斯分裂的前景及其对策，这个民族真的到了最危险的关头。
我觉得，普京集团的任务实际是救亡图存，而不是扩张或者强大。所以他的集团居然可以在宪法上走钢丝，仍然得到大多数人民的支持。因为民族的存亡优先于其他一切矛盾，普京的行动就是在竭力证明，他和他的集团，是民族的最合理代表。
从这个观察出发，我认为，俄国对SCO的表态文件是满意的。中国的立场对这个文件是决定性的。SCO没有同意俄国的最高要求，即为他背书，因为那实际上违反SCO作为一个地区安全框架（不是联盟，甚至不是松散联盟）的存在前提。俄国对一个前苏联国家和前沙俄地区单方面的领土决定，是不会被中亚国家接受的，也是会让中国尴尬的。我觉得俄国清楚这一点。他的目的是SCO在这个关键时刻成为一个独立于西方的国际势力。显然，这也是中国一贯追求的。
最后我认为，俄罗斯的强大是不可避免的。这个民族在历史上一次又一次地在灭绝的边缘成功反击，不断地制造可与西方比肩的艺术家和科学家。他的生命力是强大的。没有任何理由认为拥有核武器和迄今最好教育水平的俄罗斯人会自甘堕落。
那么，中国是不是应该担心未来俄国的强大呢？
我认为不必要，因为中国会更强大，中国将领导一个世界秩序，而俄国在其中占很重的分量。
家园 中国是在玩平衡术 My personal view is, China already did his best to support Russia.
expressing their support for Russia's positive role in promoting peace and cooperation in the region.If Sam gets officially as well as directly involved with Georgia conflict, China could also should make some action. However, at current situation, if China makes official military alliance with Russia as Russia suggested, that would totally change the situation - EU and Sam cannot make no response. That would push them closer. China and Sam have strong tie in economy, so any support to Russia could be a big pressure on Sam. Anyway what will happen in black sea next would be very interesting.
- 复 中国是在玩平衡术
家园 从抗衡美国的角度看，中俄联手是必要的，但是 中俄两国都是极权，在联盟中肯定要为争夺领导权而争吵，这样的联盟永远是不稳定的，非常容易自身或者被对手瓦解，尽管中俄联手足以改变世界
家园 《读书1》200809期 家园 联盟,领导权 The leadership in SCO is so far not an issue. Dragon won't be leaded by bear, vice versa. Today economy bond could be a more effective way than any destructive weapons in ruling this world. So the leadership, could be explained by a strong economy power that is able to connect the majority of neigbouring countries. or even further ones together.
Currently, Sam is by far stronger than any of bear and dragon. Sam has been putting his nose in middle Asia area and eastern Europe for quite some time. The effects of Sam's efforts have come out already: it broke the old European order, and refreshes the old alliance NATO with more aggressive new roles, like Georgia, Poland, and Ukraine, which have been shown highly enthumastic in having troubles with bear.
SCO was establshed under such a circumastance. Bear should have realized it neither will be decently accepted as a member of Wetern Club, and nor is able to maintain the current sitation only by itself, thus it appealed to dragon. Clearly bear has recognized dragon's interests in the central Asia. In fact this is the basis of SCO as well as B-D collaboration. Remeber what happened just before March, 21 this year? Bear didn't shout, and it simply sent a military delegation to dragon a week before that day.
In this round fight, bear achieved his goal with dragon's help - Georgia was punished, Sam's involvement was explosed and lost face in the conflict, Ukraine, Poland were warned, and EU gave in. Dragon played a role of quiet soldier in this round fight-his gun was pointing to enemies in silence. Probably bear and dragon did some practises about all possible situations in the excercise last year.
As the fate of SCO, now it is not right time to predic because Sam is still by far stronger than any of these two, and it is able to keep this much stronger power for some time. However, one thing is quite clear, as long as Sam keeps expanding, the organization will continue to exist and function.
家园 不会，这个领导权就是世界霸权了 中俄两国都是极权，在联盟中肯定要为争夺领导权而争吵，中国的国策不会容忍美俄任何一家成为霸主。也不会追求自己成为霸主。
家园 如今的世界局势 欧洲整体上输定了。美俄中欧，只有欧洲不是一个统一的国家，力量无法集中使用。虽然有个欧盟，一盘散沙各怀鬼胎。欧洲大陆本身资源并不丰富，对外依赖严重，国际竞争中他不掉队谁掉队啊。如今还有点肥肉，毕竟祖上有些积蓄，百足之虫。在美俄之间这么翻来复去，某种意义上美俄在欧洲打了一场政治经济上的日俄战争。
不知道最近中国在非洲发展得怎么样了，从资源的角度而言可真是挖了老欧洲的祖坟，难怪他们奥运前闹得最欢呢。对此表示一定程度的理解。
