主题：【美国经济】【文摘】IPO可望回暖 -- 西风陶陶

Ready to Party, But Not Like 1999

Sun November 9, 2003 03:19 PM ET

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By Steve James

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Back in the fading years of the 20th Century, before the tech bubble burst, investors made fortunes from just about any dot-com company with enough cash to start a Web site and launch an initial public offering.

The IPO boom was the stuff of Wall Street legend.

Then it all went south, along with the economy, and many of those same fortunes were lost as the dot-commers died from a lack of customers, confidence or sound business plans.

Now, after three years of stagnation, there are signs of an IPO revival. But experts doubt it will reach the same crazy heights it did in the 1990s, with an average of nearly five deals per day.

"It's already back; we're at the best level in 14 months," said Ben Holmes, of Protege Funds in Boulder, Colorado. "The backlog is swollen by biotechs, but otherwise it's fairly broad."

Benjamin Howe, managing partner of America's Growth Capital, which specializes in IPOs in the technology field, said the market was right for a new IPO boom.

"The Wall Street capital markets machine is eager to get back to business," he told Reuters from his Boston office. "We have been in a shut-down period for the last three years; We can get up close to the levels of the '90s."

Across the board, Howe said, investors are comfortable. "The demand side is very strong while on the supply side, companies are starved for capital and private companies have had three years to mature and gain critical mass sufficient for the public world."

NO ROCKIN' AND ROLLIN'

He said emerging growth businesses are healthier, and showing some growth with the economy in the early stages of recovery. But he cautioned against similar IPO madness that characterized the mood of fin-de-siecle Wall Street.

"We're not going to be at the rockin' and rollin' level of the '90s when there was an average of 200 tech IPOs a year. We are sitting somewhere in the middle with maybe 75 tech IPOs in '04," Howe said. "It will be substantially stronger than the 10 to 20 last year.

According to Howe, several factors are driving the new IPO cycle, especially since investor returns in the general market have been outstanding -- with the Dow up 14 percent year to date and the Nasdaq up 39 percent. In addition, new hedge funds have emerged with hundreds of billions to invest.

According to Dealogic, which monitors IPO filings and pricings, the boom reached its height in March 2000 when 134 IPOs were priced. But things are coming back and this August and September saw 23 IPOs in each month -- the most since 41 in October 2000.

America's Growth Capital statistics show 212 technology IPOs were completed in 2000, but only 20 the following year and nine in 2002. But Howe said aftermarket performance for 2003 IPOs has been robust -- 13 tech and health-care deals are up more than 25 percent and all other 2003 IPOs up more than 39 percent.

David Menlow, president of IPOfinancial.com, an IPO research firm, said: "It is coming back, but you're not going to see that (pre-boom level) for quite some time.

JUMP IN THE DEEP END

"It's all about sensibility of investors. They are not prone to just jump in the deep end of the pool. They want to know what's in the pool."

But IPOs can be successful in any field. "This is not sector motivated, it's about companies with sound management, sound financials, a product that has investor appeal or just makes sense."

Howe agreed that timing and price are crucial. "They (investors) want stronger and less risky stories. Biotechs are the most risky but also the biggest rewards."

"Techs dominate and will be leading the IPO sector next year," he said.

The economy cannot be underestimated, either, Menlow said. "IPOs do not like uncertainty. People won't invest in growth-related companies if the economy is shrinking."

John Fitzgibbon, editor of the online IPO monitor 123jump.com, said bankers priced just 10 IPOs in the first half of 2003, but five alone in the final week of October.

To investors asking "where have all the IPOs gone?" Fitzgibbon replied: "The IPO market never goes away, it simply moves to a backburner."

He noted that "the fuel for the new-issues engine has always been the stock market." With the Dow Jones industrial average up 5.7 percent in October and the Nasdaq up 8.1 percent and the S&P 500 at a 2003 closing high, the signs are good for new issues, he said.

"The stock market is setting itself for a seasonal year-end rally," he said. "And guess what will be riding on its coattails? The IPO calendar."