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主题:【原创】侃侃2024年的国际局势 -- 脑袋

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家园 其实不一定是拉低对方

因为随着技术进步,生活方式改变,人类可能发展出低碳,智能,低耗能的新生活方式。如果一定以大房子,油老虎车为苏爽生活标准,那只能拉低对方标准。但新生活方式是住高层集中的智能化公寓呢?说不定比郊区大房子更舒适和低耗能。如果出行是自动驾驶的出租车或便捷的公交系统呢?说不定比每家一台油老虎更方便和便宜。由于有技术进步,这不一定是零和游戏。

Here's a summary of the document created by Microsoft Copilot:

Copilot does not provide a Chinese summary :). 很有意思的是,文中关于以色列的部分被copilot给自动忽略掉了。这个世界如果靠美国提供的人工智能来总结信息,以色列会被自动政治正确。

Main ideas:

The main theme of the document: The document is about the author's predictions for the international situation in 2024, based on the observation of the ongoing competition between China and the United States.12

The challenges and strategies of China and the US: The document describes how China and the US are both pursuing a decoupling strategy, trying to reduce their dependence on each other and strengthen their own economic and industrial systems. The document also discusses the difficulties and costs of this process for both sides, as well as the possible scenarios of cooperation or confrontation.34

The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war: The document analyzes the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war, which has become a long-term stalemate. The document claims that Russia has successfully resisted the US-led financial sanctions and maintained its economic growth, while also exposing the limitations of the US high-tech weapons. The document also speculates that Russia may seek a reconciliation with the West in the future, which would create a new challenge for China.56

The prospects of the Taiwan issue: The document argues that Taiwan is a key strategic point for China's national defense and economic development, and that China will not use military force to unify Taiwan unless Taiwan poses a direct threat to China's security. The document also suggests that Taiwan's economic dependence on the US makes it reluctant to accept reunification, and that China needs to develop its own independent industrial system and provide Taiwan with a better alternative.27

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