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主题:【讨论】我就是烦有些人喝计生血 -- 审度

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家园 不是说该不该的问题,是怎么做的问题。

按现在的人口惯性,长期内持续下降是必然的,大家都知道。

之前引用过17年的一篇,实际上不过是常识。

Third, and most policy-relevant of all, the reverse momentum built up by the hundreds of millions of births already averted would carry forward to avert their descendants even if the government lifted the program immediately. And if the government did so, without having to spend a single additional yuan on the birth planning program, it could still claim an averted population by 2060 far in excess of the 400 million that they had asserted. In fact, paradoxically, although any fertility uptick following a policy repeal would have reduced estimates of births averted directly resulting from policy, that reduction would have been largely offset by increased estimates of the averted descendants who would have been born under higher assumed fertility.

问题是怎么做,盲目鼓励会不会制造新的问题?有会不会给人新的谋利空间(这个利可以有无数种形式)?决策就是一句话的事情,方案都是现成的,甚至只要一个政策就可以鼓励。但利弊还是要分析清。至少别再那样盲动执行。这大概就是审度兄的意见,也是个人的意见。

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