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主题:【原创】新冠抗体持续时间的计算机仿真 -- 菜根谭

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家园 【原创】新冠抗体持续时间的计算机仿真

结论先行:新冠感染自然产生的抗体持续时间最大可能是在 6±3 个月,群体免疫策略面临极大的不确定性。

胡一刀:一个关于疫苗的坏消息;及英国人又在发明轮子了

看到这个帖子,花了点时间去研究了下,因为是新闻,所以科学性不能保证。这个报道给我的感觉不太妙,决定基于以上报道自己搞个小程序仿真下新冠抗体的可能持续时间。

数据:在3-4个月的时间,英国新冠感染后有效抗体消失了26%;

前置条件:

1. 第4个月时,抗体消失概率在(25±5)%;

2. 抗体持续时间符合高斯分布;

方法:

仿真程序很简单,Matlab程序花了10分钟,工科生都会做。直接放图:图1显示仿真范围内,在第四个月抗体消失的概率值,可能看到只有绿带大概符合前边的数据;图2是把挑出来的能符合前边条件的平均值和方差组合做了个散点图,图3挑了几个可能的数据画了下高斯分布曲线。

结论:新冠抗体持续时间最大可能是在 6±3 个月。

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Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection'

Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection'

The Imperial College London team found the number of people testing positive for antibodies has fallen by 26% between June and September.

They say immunity appears to be fading and there is a risk of catching the virus multiple times.

The news comes as figures from the Office for National Statistics show that the number of Covid-19 deaths in the UK rose by 60% in the week of 16 October.

The ONS figures suggest there have now been more than 60,000 deaths involving Covid-19 in the UK.

More than 350,000 people in England have taken an antibody test as part of the REACT-2 study so far.

In the first round of testing, at the end of June and the beginning of July, about 60 in 1,000 people had detectable antibodies.

But in the latest set of tests, in September, only 44 per 1,000 people were positive.

通宝推:再闻鸡起舞,
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