主题：【原创】新冠的下一幕：过场还是下一波？ -- 菜根谭

不晓得德国的统计标准，美国CDC有点资料，也不准确知道是什么标准，没仔细研究。

下面是美国CDC的数据表，统计的新冠死亡是8.3万+，外界的统计是10万+（各地报告的汇总），该表提供了这期间死亡总数是98万+，比过去三年同期平均增加了4％，相当于不到3.8万，看上去也合理，新冠死亡相当一部份与基础疾病死亡重叠。

该表还分列了不同疾病组合的死亡原因，新冠肺炎，一般肺炎，流感，有人染一种，有人同时染了多种，统计看上去就很复杂。2009年的H1N1流感，WHO给出的死亡估计是15万-57.5万，同随口说个数字差不多，可见这个死亡统计是很头疼的事，难有统一标准，没法比较，例如，如果肺部没有严重损坏，还能喘气（呼吸机），不算入新冠死亡，那死亡率就显得很低。

该表的说明

NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. The United States population, based on 2018 postcensal estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, is 327,167,434.

*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.

1. Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD–10 code U07.1

2. Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019. Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death (<25%), and then increases over time such that data are generally at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred (8).

3. Pneumonia death counts exclude pneumonia deaths involving influenza.

4. Influenza death counts include deaths with pneumonia or COVID-19 also listed as a cause of death.

5. Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, pneumonia, or influenza, coded to ICD–10 codes U07.1 or J09–J18.9.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm