主题：【整理】中美贸易歧视 -- 懒虫123

美国经济数据 也是个弥天大谎

来源:南华早报

中国经常被指操控经济数据；但看看美国或陷入衰退的希腊吧，也许许多国家也都在不同程度上做这样的事。

美国核心通胀率由消费者物价指数反映，然而并未计入能源及食品价格。

在美国，政治上最为敏感的经济数据要算是通胀和失业率了。这两个数据的升跌，可以决定选举的成败。政界人士在国会内发起意识形态之战，将低通胀、低失业率的功劳算在自己头上；一旦通胀和失业率高企，就归咎于政敌。

然而，新闻媒体定期报出的两个官方数据都极具误导性。中国经常被指操控经济数据；但看看美国或陷入衰退的希腊吧，也许许多国家也都在不同程度上做这样的事。

美国核心通胀率由消费者物价指数反映，后者计算美国人付款换取的所有物品及服务，包括租金及理发费。然而核心通胀率并未计入能源及食品价格。对一般美国人来说，有什么比能源和食品更重要、更不可或缺？但经济学家辩称，能源和食品价格波动大，因此不被计入，以得出较像样的“核心”价格走势。平心而论，官员的确也有列出计入食品及能源价格后的通胀率，但政界领导、央行官员及专家向媒体引用的数据，都是核心通胀率。

失业率则是另一回事。大家实在应该读一读盖洛普咨询公司（Gallup）主席兼首席执行官吉姆．克里夫顿（Jim Clifton）最新撰写的文章“大谎言：5.6%失业率”（The big lie: 5.6% unemployment"）。该文章刊登于其公司的网站。

美国劳工部如何计算失业率？如果你失业，而过去四周又未有求职，你就不算失业。如果你一周只工作一小时，而收入至少为20美元，也不算失业。如果你开工严重不足，也不算失业。

克里夫顿在其文中写道：“没有其他方式可以形容这种情况：长期无业人士往往属永久失业，而开工不足人士的境遇也令人沮丧；然而官方失业率残酷地忽略了他们的苦况，扯了个天大的谎言。”

他的结语是：“我们伟大的美国梦失落了。”

美国如今被视为全球经济唯一的亮点。但如果克里夫顿是对的，美国的经济复苏情况并不如其所声称的那样稳健，世界也有理由感到忧虑。

The Big Lie: 5.6% Unemployment

by Jim Clifton

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Here's something that many Americans -- including some of the smartest and most educated among us -- don't know: The official unemployment rate, as reported by the U.S. Department of Labor, is extremely misleading.

Right now, we're hearing much celebrating from the media, the White House and Wall Street about how unemployment is "down" to 5.6%. The cheerleading for this number is deafening. The media loves a comeback story, the White House wants to score political points and Wall Street would like you to stay in the market.

None of them will tell you this: If you, a family member or anyone is unemployed and has subsequently given up on finding a job -- if you are so hopelessly out of work that you've stopped looking over the past four weeks -- the Department of Labor doesn't count you as unemployed. That's right. While you are as unemployed as one can possibly be, and tragically may never find work again, you arenotcounted in the figure we see relentlessly in the news -- currently 5.6%. Right now, as many as 30 million Americans are either out of work or severely underemployed. Trust me, the vast majority of them aren't throwing parties to toast "falling" unemployment.

There's another reason why the official rate is misleading. Say you're an out-of-work engineer or healthcare worker or construction worker or retail manager: If you perform a minimum of one hour of work in a week and are paid at least $20 -- maybe someone pays you to mow their lawn -- you're not officially counted as unemployed in the much-reported 5.6%. Few Americans know this.

Yet another figure of importance that doesn't get much press: those working part time but wanting full-time work. If you have a degree in chemistry or math and are working 10 hours part time because it is all you can find -- in other words, you are severely underemployed -- the government doesn't count you in the 5.6%. Few Americans know this.

There's no other way to say this. The official unemployment rate, which cruelly overlooks the suffering of the long-term and often permanently unemployed as well as the depressingly underemployed, amounts to a Big Lie.

And it's a lie that has consequences, because the great American dream is to have a good job, and in recent years, America has failed to deliver that dream more than it has at any time in recent memory. A good job is an individual's primary identity, their very self-worth, their dignity -- it establishes the relationship they have with their friends, community and country. When we fail to deliver a good job that fits a citizen's talents, training and experience, we are failing the great American dream.

Gallup defines a good job as 30+ hours per week for an organization that provides a regular paycheck. Right now, the U.S. is delivering at a staggeringlylow rate of 44%, which is the number of full-time jobs as a percent of the adult population, 18 years and older. We need that to be 50% and a bare minimum of 10 million new, good jobs to replenish America's middle class.

I hear all the time that "unemployment is greatly reduced, but the people aren't feeling it." When the media, talking heads, the White House and Wall Street start reporting the truth -- the percent of Americans in good jobs; jobs that are full time andreal --then we will quit wondering why Americans aren't "feeling" something that doesn't remotely reflect the reality in their lives. And we will also quit wondering what hollowed out the middle class.