主题：茗谈（126）：庖丁解牛 -- 本嘉明

1.

政治上, 毛林共识=共军垄断的战略核武器.

毛林共识 has been actually a Chinese elite management model for most of china's 5 k years, 大一统政治文化, at its core;

毛林's contribution is they modernized that Chinese traditional political model with 马列主义, and very successful in a way, vs India, as you posted before, if I remember correctly;

and Deng, N86 etc further grow 毛林共识 into a "Chinese model" of capitalism post US 911 crisis, very successful;

在中国, 军队独立不可想象, and TG'has managed to unify Chinese 军队 under central government, rare in Chinese history, and has managed fxxking uncle sam in korea, boosting Chinese nation's "ego" almost to sky high, etc;

with all that, I would think that most Chinese people actually support TG's 毛林共识, as a model of managing china, despite of all the problems.

2.

the challenge

"毛林共识"本质上是一个落后的生产关系, and it has started impacting negatively the progress of Chinese society in all most all areas.

but, if TG top manages "毛林共识" political model well, and continue to reform and grow Chinese economy, with measures such as 资本(信息)市场开放, TG will be ok, china will be ok: you got the money, then you got everybody's heart and soul, almost.

and with money, TG top can buy time to politically normalize china in future.

and I actually think TG top is going in that direction, and so far so good.

Now, Uncle Sam: US does not like that scenario at all, china cannot grow further, period. china has to be contained.

and the logic is pretty simple: in today's world of 生产过剩， 信息资本人才缺乏， 工作缺乏经济增长缺乏, US should be the only place with a blue and bright sky, with no international competition of whomever, whatsoever and where ever.

3.

chairman X's 战略失误 in HK

HK is basically a 忽悠战, TG can 忽悠 HK assholes easily with all kind of tricks/headfakes.

chairman X 把香港忽悠战当成实战打了, 打成今天香港十几万人上街， 全世界面前， 香港瘫痪.

and in front of TG's all important 四中全會.

4.

搞不好， 共军盘子被美军打开一个战略缺口.

政治上, 毛林共识=共军垄断的战略核武器.

美军 is obviously running its all kinds of models to try poking a hole out of that 共军独家垄断的战略核武器.

and here comes HK mess.

atop all the china's problem and at this critical juncture of all the important timings, chairman X's mishandling of HK could well be a catalyst to make all the mess into a potentially a fire and smoke 相变 situation, obviously Uncle Sam is getting excited, trying putting some gas into it.

HK mess actually exposed the ass of chairman X: he has been largely managing TG's HK affairs since 2007(?), and he could easily 玩忽悠战 at many critical pivotal points, to avoid today's stupid situation of HK mess in front of the whole world.

5.

"四中全會强渡长江: 用孩子喂狼, 资本(信息)市场开放",etc, 可能泡汤.

chairman X's agenda of 国内经济改革产业升级, or even his political position among TG top could be seriously weakened due to this HK mess, and making it worse:

what he could do to clean up this HK mess, with the whole world staring him?

搞不好， TG 被美军打开一个战略缺口, 政治上, internationally and potentially domestically.

if nothing else, 毛林共识=共军垄断的战略核武器 would be facing with an increasingly more expensive bill, in terms of its execution in mainland china, even if 毛林共识 ALSO is still working, and very likely it will.

if not, it would be basically the end of TGchina as we know.

for now and at least, the global capital market (including Chinese money of all kinds) will question chairman X's vision and ability as TG's only top head trader.

and chairman X is basically naked, facing potentially snowballing losses of all kinds, another typical "unhedged international macro trade" of TG top, all in again, baby, now how do you get your ass out of that hole?

among all the problems china is facing: TG has a new problem with its self appointed head trader---chairman X's leadership problem.

6.

I have posted before here in this forum somewhere:

the worst case for chairman X is he thinks that he is >毛+邓+江;

he is actually < any of them, in terms of his brain power.

一代不如一代， out of a 封闭非竞争体系.

and in that sense, 毛邓江, N86 etc have been lucky, somehow they managed to 取得政权 in mainland china, 保卫发展政权, and to be fairly speaking, they have managed to grow china into a independent and now a super global economic power, almost a miracle.

but that may be more of luck or one time trade thing, and fundamentally TG top has been weak in terms of ALGO power, particularly in the context of international gaming, almost since day 1, post TG's 1949's victory in mainland china.

now that historical weakness of TG may be coming out to strike against TG top, hunting TG top from possibly all over the world: TG top has been basically shorting the whole world since 1949.

bills have to be paid, negotiated, or settled, one way or another.