主题：国债负利率的日本，越借钱政府赚得越多，当然不怕花钱 -- forger

墨虎's fallacy posts is about a subject of worth of tons of books;

长远看, CNY is much more bullish than JPY, for the obvious reasons;

the too obvious things are often likely fallacies;

"长远看, CNY more bullish vs JPY", can you provide a operational model for chairman X based on that kind of people's daily stuff?

can you as a trader, investor, a business man make decisions based on that stuff?

how 长远 is 长远? if we can't define or quantify it, then it is useless, fallacies suspicious, because it does not provide any new information, and therefore valueless;

1.

as said, TG picked up soviet union version of Marxism as their "logic model" at right time, right place, and it worked out hugely well for TG.

Marxism, Lennism actually "correctly" exposed the disequilibrium nature of capitalism, so did Keynesian & alike other white economists, human system as an open dissipative system is fundamentally unstable, part of reasons human brain consumes most of human system's energy in a struggle to deal with this inherent volatility, as an individual or as a group;

still, in retrospect, Marxism, Lennism are more likely a fallacy ideology, because it did really contribute any new information to the humanity, its 砸烂旧世界 solution to fix the problem of capitalism is obviously more harmful than helpful to human system as a whole;

china in long term will more likely do better than japan, and neither of them will fall apart as "volatility" may have suggested, and china's survival and growth in future will be related less and less to Marxism & Lennism.

and again, 长远看 is a fallacy, "china will do well" is a fallacy as well, because it does not tell you any information about "china will do well relative to whom"? and how to get there? at all.

2.

how to get there? it looks like US is trying to make this AI economy fly off

changshou：几何直观地介绍广义相对论的时空以及大爆炸模型 （0） 2013-07-03 19:23:56

a very good series

柯西超曲面,"全局双曲的时空 存在整体的坐标时间" [ 晓兵 ] 于:2013-07-03 19:23:56 复:3674028

物理"因果结构存在"=柯西超曲面=全局双曲的时空 存在整体的坐标时间"

"如果有一个 这样的整体的坐标时间 我们就有无穷多的其他的 整体的坐标时间。这是因为我们可以把观察者们的世界线 作连续的形变（只要形变幅度不大 就仍然是类时的）。

这类时空 有整体的坐标时间和 对应于（该坐标时间的）某一时刻的空间部分（柯西超曲面）。于是 我们可以说 全局双曲的时空是 柯西超曲面随坐标时间演化而成的。"

that tells us, as an individual or a group, we all get a share of this 柯西超曲面 related volatility, period;

and how to reduce that volatility consumption of our energy, is often critical, or 出身未捷身先死 长使英雄泪满襟;

in the past of not too long ago, human beings used to murder each other in tons of blood to figure out whose political ideology religious view are fallacies, not any more, now human social science 证伪 process is much less bloody, more of financial market 证伪, then you have 2008 black hole almost sucked in the whole world of capitalism.

so, let's try AI 证伪, part of why AI economy now.

in terms of social physics, 柯西超曲面 may exist, but it currently cost society tons of money in trying figuring this "柯西超曲面度量" thing out;

and making things worse, even GR model may have underestimated the "volatility cost" in finding 柯西超曲面, in using its Riemann manifold 二次形 vs finsler manifold, 芬斯勒几何是一种没有二次型限制的黎曼几何，与变分学密切相关, Finsler度量是没有二次型限制的riemann度量, etc

3.

partially, "volatility cost" is associated with 战争是政治的继续 model, since capitalist economics can't handle a dissipative system of today's national and world economy, so Ben/Fed actually played 政治 role as Fed is part of uncle sam's 国家机器 anyway, and with that, Ben/Fed bailed out uncle sam out of its 2008 black hole.

obviously, chairman X is trying using TGchina's 国家机器 to handle this likely coming bear market for china as well.