主题：国债负利率的日本，越借钱政府赚得越多，当然不怕花钱 -- forger

1. jpy's circulation in world, as of 2009

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/all_the_money_in_the_world_102720093

Country/Union Currency Code Amount (US$bn) Percentage of all world money

Eurozone EUR 1067.6 24.0%

United States USD 862.3 19.4%

Japan JPY 805.4 18.1%

China (mainland) CNY 539.7 12.1%

India INR 144.7 3.3%

2.

JPY 汇率贬值 also helps to grow Japanese corporate business in overseas, in Asian countries in particular, they are making tons of profit already, remitting back to japan every march of the year, & traders all stop shoring JPY at that time;

3.

with all the 东海防空识别区 etc fuss china is making, uncle TG is basically yelling at everybody:

why I can't dump my CNY into your mouth & ass (:), just like USA, Japan have been doing, I want to re-write "rules" of game, with Chinese as one of underwriting guys;

uncle sam, all white guys, and a few their "yellow" buddies: how do we play this game out with uncle X?

now with his carefully planned 东海防空识别区 as a first shot has been fired, fairly loud, with a lot of smokes, what would be chairman X's follow up trade?

3.

ABE QE=汇率与货币双贬值, japan dare to 作空和卖空 japan

somebody has to long japan on the other side of the trade, or there is a "worse" guy out there as as an even better "short" trade target near by, so, ABE's calculation likely=

jpy is the lessor of the two evils, vs CNY, or china;

"很多人说中国的债务不是特别高，这是指的中央政府债务。但如果将中央政府债务、地方政府债务和企业债务加总计算与GDP占比的话，中国基本上是世界第二，只低于日本，高于欧元区，高于美国，更远高于印度、东南亚等国家或者地区。"

again, as I posted, I don't think china would 崩潰 or anything of that nature;

the trick is market expectation: you are pretty bad, or worst than others, that is all what matters;

perceived risk of 中国债务="muddy water" , how muddy is muddy, nobody knows=even muddier

& CNY is not JPY in terms of internationalization, then TG can't monetize its 债务 internationally;

monetizing TG's 债务 with 农村土地流转 may be TG's only game, which is an essentially short the Chinese farmers trade, what else chairman X could do?

if that is the top priority of X model, then this 識別區 is likely a 外海(very smart) launched ideology preparation of 剝奪農民(为祖国牺牲), putting it in a real "evil" way

4.

if ABE figures it all out about X model as seen in the above, he would think

1)

then X's 东海防空识别区 is really more of domestically oriented political & ideology fuss, likely a paper tiger

2)

农村土地流转/剝奪農民 to monetize TG's huge Ponzi game is really X model's 重中之重

he has to play that 农村土地流转 game very well, the only 战略预备队 he has, which will take him at lease a couple of years, if not longer.

and that 战略预备队 is for chairman X's domestic trade only, he can't use that to go into an even a regional conflict with japan/USA;

a regional conflict can get out of control, 升級, then chairman X would really need his 战略预备队 in the case of regional conflict's 升級, so far, he does not really have one, unless he is ready to go nuclear, & even in that case, china is not likely coming out of the nuclear mess as a winner, then what for?

5.

Russian bear is of course not a 战略预备队 of china, and obviously no one is, internationally, then china is totally naked, all international 观望者 could potentially all jump in, fxxking china from behind, if china messes up, a big guy with a lot of money in his pocket, all animals would become red eyed wolves right away, sex & money as an always working trigger, in a non-linear human game.

I would think, that with TG as 身经百战 super powerful political organization, chairman X could drive the ship fairly well, in the next couple of years, he would consult with all the major players of TG, in making any important decisions, he should know that he is not even comparable to M, D, or J, by any standards, he should be at least as prudent as H; I would think that H is an at least 自知之明 leader.

the worst case: X thinks X >=M+D+J+H.

history will tell.

---------

刘海影 is a pretty good macro economist

http://blog.caijing.com.cn/expert_article-151566-61631.shtml

中国经济未来不确定性的主要来源

2013-11-19 13:11:15

分类：未分类

中国经济在可预见的未来的最主要的矛盾是什么？可能是实体经济极高的可预测性，与金融危机极强的不确定性之间的矛盾。

不发生金融危机的情况下，目前中国经济的轨迹未来几个季度的变量很小，具有很高的可预测性。在去年年底之前，过去十几年的中国经济波动从库存周期的角度可以得到很好的理解：高速工业化过程中，由投资建设和产能释放驱动的库存波动可以解释大部分的周期型态；但从去年年底新周期开始之后，整个分析框架和逻辑可能出现了变化。主要原因就在于在过去这十几年里，中国建设了过高的过剩产能，并且这个过剩产能是由过高的债务负担来予以支撑的。

很多人说中国的债务不是特别高，这是指的中央政府债务。但如果将中央政府债务、地方政府债务和企业债务加总计算与GDP占比的话，中国基本上是世界第二，只低于日本，高于欧元区，高于美国，更远高于印度、东南亚等国家或者地区。

中国经济未来不确定性的主要来源

（红色柱为政府与企业债务占比）

中国这么高的过剩产能压迫资本回报率出现直线下降。资本回报率的下降的证据非常多，实际上中国现在的资本回报率可以说是过去十几年来的最低点，同时负债率是最高点。相当多的企业的资本回报率极低，这些企业没有能力靠自己的经营生存下去，就不得不靠加杠杆加债务来支撑。这种情况下，过大的产能是由过大的债务来予以维系的，而这个状况在今年其实没有更改，预计明年也不会改变。

中国经济未来不确定性的主要来源

（ROA为非金融上市公司资产收益率，负债率为非金融上市公司债务占资产比例）

这样的经济循环往下走，它的一个必然的逻辑就是总有某一天，经济所遭遇的不仅仅是流动性的危机，而是某一些局部链条破裂、出现清偿性危机的可能性。为什么今年利率仍然在往上走，我觉得从这个角度其实是可以理解的：从需求端而言，大量的企业（包括房地产企业、过剩产能行业里的僵尸企业、地方政府平台公司等）对资金的需求不太受利率的抑制。而从央行的态度而言，他们好像比较坚决的希望能够收紧流动性，号称我们发的钞票太多了，M2已经上百万亿了，要收这个流动性。所以，这两者之间其实是造成一个矛盾的格局，因而造成在投资回报率最低、债务比例最高的情况下，利率仍然在上升。而利率上升必然会削弱相当多企业和金融机构的生存能力。

在这个游戏终结之前，这种加杠杆逻辑基本上笼罩了中国经济变动的轨迹。之前的库存周期的逻辑因此被破坏掉了。所以，这一轮库存周期是一个碎片化的周期，一会儿加一会儿减，或者上游行业加下游行业减，完全不像以前历次库存见底之后经济快速恢复的情形。我去年年底写文章说今年面临的是一个“耐克式复苏”，这个复苏是浅和弱的，现在看的确也是这样。这就是因为庞大的过剩产能已经把库存周期压碎掉了，它没办法像以前那样形成一个自我正反馈的循环。

为什么说主要的矛盾在于宏观经济的强可预测性和金融危机的强不确定性之间的矛盾，就在于如果没有金融危机，上面描述的经济轨迹明年会持续下去，宏观经济增速在7%～7.5%之间，通货膨胀不会失控，杠杆率与利率继续上升。但是从6月“钱荒”到目前债券市场体现出来的状况看，已经揭示了极强的一个脆弱性，显示出在我们金融体系的某些链条的局部，其实是非常脆弱的。如果钱荒的时间持续一周，可能我们今天的状况已经完全不一样了。这意味着，央行用简单的总量控制的方法来解决这个问题其实是不可行的。所以，央行要回答的问题是，当执行自己的收流动性的这么一个预定政策与实际经济状况体现出来的金融脆弱性之间的矛盾呈现出来的时候该怎么办，这是一个问题。

我个人担心，如果在明年年中的某一个时点，当金融层面的脆弱性暴露在央行面前的时候，如果央行不事先做好自己的预案和明确自己的导向，并让市场形成稳定预期，它在实际应对过程中有可能体现出来的软弱或者迟疑就有可能导致一些局部链条崩溃，而这个局部链条崩溃有可能在羊群效应的扩散之下产生相当大的冲击，尤其考虑到当实体经济层面有那么多的企业依赖高负债杠杆率来维持的时候。这一矛盾可能最值得担心的一个问题，换言之，局部支付承诺链条崩溃所导致的局部的甚至是全局性的危机，是否会发生、央行如何应对，可能是未来经济生活面临的最大不确定性。

（11月18日发表于《第一财经日报》，基于研讨会会议发言）