主题：有人说下最近香港的事吗？ -- 谢家堂前

first of all, I type English much faster, and don't care about ideology, I care only about logic and how to model this "social science" world, sometimes with a modern physics methodology, and have no personal (being attacked or attacking someone, arguments normal though) interests whatsoever in this forum, which is a great public forum.

1.

the Chinese perspective of 自贸区

香港的金融中心地位最多维持到2016年 花13 半新 聚散之间 字

一国两制是个筐，强者决定怎么装 花203 半新 夜郎国主 字2069 2013-09-26 07:05:18

"聚散之间" and "夜郎国主" wrote very well, a very good approximation of TG's line of thinking on this 自贸区 thing;

2.

your this post provides a great international perspective

the fundamental concept of 法律体系 as a fundamental system basis of 金融測度 and 金融 as the best allocation of capital and other production factors are kind of beyond the comprehension of many Chinese, very likely including TG's top folks, it is an almost a blind spot/盲点 in their mind, possibly due to the Chinese culture of 5k years + their self interests as a ruling political regime as one of the few still existing authoritarian type.

3.

nobody can afford a 认知盲点 in his/her mind

if a nation has a 认知盲点 in his mind, this nation is not going to a leader in the world

in a way, education ( including those private ones) is all about cleaning 认知盲点 out of one's mind.

that education better to be a good one, or it will likely make 认知盲点 things even worse.

4.

US actually has a 认知盲点 in its mind, among many, naturally.

they don't really understand Marxism (and therefore TG to some extent, that may be partially why US is now largely focusing on economic competition with china), but luckily for them, humanity's trial of Marxism is over for the foreseeable future.

that is kind of bad for TG, TG's advantage =(夜郎国主's post wrote very well about 中国主體文明) 中国主體文明 + 列宁建党建军 theory/model

中国主體文明 =largely shared as a common culture by Chinese people, formatted in 5k years;

TG's 列宁建党建军 theory/model= 千锤百炼 of about 100 years?

It is very difficult if not impossible to break any one of the above two, and now you have the two built together into one very resilient 中国特色 system organically by TG already, for "good" or for "bad", nobody knows until another 5 k years later?

5.

TG's 战略盲点

1)

an example of too many

from sina weibo

@_-冰翼-_

小学一年级的新书把我萌倒了！

(1375)| 转发(10733)| 收藏| 评论(4317)

@对冲基金-云岭渔樵: //@菜根坛主任: [飞机]//@平壤崔成浩:回复@她他牠的塔:怕被你们赶上，我笑不出来。 //@她他牠的塔: @平壤崔成浩 小崔，你该偷笑了 //@大鹏看天下:不走苏联路线了，改走朝鲜路线？ [弱]//新加坡路线

and I have to say, at least, in terms of physics and math education/research, china is not really catching up, and yes, china produces millions engineers every year.

2)

yes, things like this could vell be a tiny tactical move in TG's "大棋盘" , by TG in terms of tightening political/ideology control while pushing for even more capitalist economic reforms

still, Tg's 苏联路线 or even 朝鲜路线 (regardless of TG's 战略忽悠 or whatsoever) image/or political core of its basic model, or perception, is not going to help TG to figure out "金融市场的基本要求是自由并因此可预期" 金融 game for china, and human capital game, science and technology game etc behind 金融 game, in building a first class modern country of the world, and to be a leader, you need to be the first among many first class modern nations.

from sina weibo

【上千亿债务压顶 光伏”僵尸“重生渺茫】“国内前十大光伏制造企业的总负债已经高达上千亿，行业普遍负债率在70%以上。”中国可再生能源学会副理事长孟宪淦表示。部分地方政府已经爱莫能助，企业前路注定充满艰难险阻，也许在未来行业兼并重组大潮中仅能保留下一个招牌

6.

if you lose 金融 game, human capital game, science and technology game, what else do you really have left in this largely nuclear- equilibrium world?

you can't finance your military building up, and not only that, those expensive/cash eating military machine (of course including those "corrupt" and hungry generals or to be generals) will come back hunting you, asking for cashier checks from you, everyday, what are you going to do?

from weibo

习近平近日参加河北省委常委专题民主生活会。

省委常委、省军区司令员史鲁泽说，在自己的工作领域，有时存在宴席不高档是“不给面子”，场面不壮观是“没有重视”，开道没有警车是“不够隆重”等错误认识

small money for those 省军区司令员 folks.

7.

china 崩溃, very much like china's so acalled 北京共识 as world new leader, are all extremely small probability event: both of them are too simple and too naive

as I said before, TG/Chinese people=an odd couple of working marriage of human being's largest single household ever, 清官难断家务事, but this Chinese 家 will grow along, with GDP growth rate >6.5% at least? that is still amazing, despite of all kinds of debt/corruption problems, etc

the risk: 近亲繁殖, all most the opposite of US model, and which model has a competitive advantage in this increasingly globalized market place of financial capital and human talent?

8.

US, the beautiful coming back kid of global capitalism

fed recent release: 1) us household net worth all time high passing 2007, 2)Commercial and Industrial Loans at All Commercial Banks (BUSLOANS)trending up, consumers and businesses all steadily making a living like normal animals would do, despite of US gov cutting back, sequester, etc

9.

as smart as TG is, eventually I guess, a mainland version of 新加坡 model may be put on TG 政治局 table as the only "logical" and feasible option going forward for TG itself, and for china as well