主题：【原创】上海自由贸易区---赌博的市场化？ -- 思想的行者

1.

as "stong" as TG looks now, if large scale 资本 outflowing of china happens, as in the case of smaller one of Q42011 & Q32012 but not with scales yet, and if someday capital outflow starts into trending, and it can't be reversed, it may well be the "last" day of TG.

with TG's marx ideology largely gone, TG's super political/military power is basically a derivative of TG's financial power/tax power, if the underlying financial power/tax power start decaying, the derivatives can fall apart overnight, "相變".

2.

so, TG really cares about or even works for global capital market in a way, extremely speaking, all other idealology/propaganda/5 cents/公知 media stuff are really "noise", worth very little if anything.

so, in a way, as complicated and confusing as social science is in terms of 測度, once we have a 物理介质 kind of 介质 such as 金融介质 for social science, things become more measurable with some 測度.

global 资本市場 as some kind of 金融物理介质 tends to approximate that of 经典熱力學 with 电磁相互作用长程力 (there are always some 引力相互作用 out there, but its 强度最小), statistically over "time" & @ "macroscopic" level, we have a model for 经典熱力學 with all kinds of revisions/updates;

"locally" and in a "short time" frame, 资本市場 can be as wild as a 多体 quantum physics system with 电子相互作用短程力 dominating the system (obviously 短程力 much more tricky/non-linear than 长程力(largely linear) ) /波粒二重性不确定性 etc, making it much harder to model;

3.

now what is behind "long term trend" of global capital market for china?

obviously, it is china relative to USA, it is more and more about fundamental profitability ("risk adjusted") of capital investment: 中美较量, to be figured out collectively by global capital market.

the early "easier money" part of foreign capital flow into china is done, and profit largely already 收割入库 by foreign capitalist, and of course by china political top as well.

4.

US political economic macro picture is actually fairly clear with some visibility with US just survived the "financial earthquake" not long ago, and you could even say that a little bit increase/decrease/volatility (but not of an another earthquake level) in terms of capital flow poses no fundamental threat to US, US has been there done that many times, 久经考验, as the political and economic "long term" center of world capitalism system.

what about TG/china? what level of volatility of capital flow/market can TG/china handle without triggering a 相變 or even a regime change in china?

it is a tough issue, for TG both as "individuals" and/or as a collective system.