主题：【原创】从过去的龙年看未来的中国（连载） -- diamond

the beautiful outcome of TG 大投資大结局 as u described & many wished=almost day dream as described by Marx on capital, essentially, fundamentally, and of course, we are extremely speaking and talking about "extreme scenarios" or 本质基本面.

one of the results of TG as the "newest/single biggest" and last capitalist joining the global capitalist game=global industrial over capacity, the slowing down of global industrial productivity (including the shrinking of labor force or shrinking middle class to be 无产者, partially due to 相对贫困/绝对贫困, US case: more on food stamps, less labor force, potential GDP growth rate/productivity reduced);

china, household savings=about 10% of national savings, there is not much there for "sp500/TG" capitalists to 盜;

knowing that, sp500 capitalist holding 3 $T cash have no incentives to invest, facing the declining rate of return on capital investment, despite all incentives put there by fed/ben QE; why invest? invest for what? to further increase global industrial overcapacity? 搬起石头砸自己的脚?

and very likely, knowing all about above, TG capitalist are holding the cash(战略预备队) to TG's chest as well, not willing to do any significant 大投資 as commissioner 陳 (not 说坏话 on him or any internet personality, "说坏话" for what purpose?) has been shouting around.

资本论 has actually predicated what will happen once capitalism is totally globalized: kind of where we are today, again, extremely speaking; capitalist life has long way to go, and non-marx economists will invent all kind of theories for that, including TG's 大投資 theorists .

and we are all hoping for the technological progress/breakthrough, newer service economy paradigm, next next facebook trick...

interestingly, TG as one of the few surviving graduated PHD of "on capital" is putting "on capital" where nobody can find, and replacing it with "城镇化" and no "城镇化", yes and no, no and yes, "掩耳盜鈴", or they have to let Mr B come out and try something totally different from the current TG capitalism, that is why Mr B as a political possibility is still a nightmare for Mr X in a way, and I never understand why Mr X allow Mr B to do a nationalizedMr B's talent show like what we have been seeing?

TG in a way has become the last buyer of the global capitalism equity index, likely at the highest price point, there is no buyer of TG size anymore, again extremely speaking, after all TG is a lot of stronger than ever;

holding back from any more 大投資 (badly wished by sp500 capitlists for their one more dumping of surplus into china) is actually smart, the issue is how long TG can hold on to that "not 大投資" smartness? what if china's investment driven GDP slows further more? etc, political risk.

EU has kind of survived that 资本论 version slowing down without QE, US may have to go through the same drill again if slowing down again in the next 1 or 2 years (looks very likely, per on capital's logic), and this time us will be likely slowing down without QE, and a 资本论 version, given the us resources and the way they build their social political system, USA like will survive that, like EU did;

can china political system risk that massive economic slowing down, 资本论 version?

and how to play that "what if" scenario, domestically and internationally, that would be the real project to do for those TG's strategists.

--------------

全世界无产者，联合起来！ - 维基百科，自由的百科全书

zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hk/全世界无产者，联合起来！

轉為繁體網頁

共产党人不屑于隐瞒自己的观点和意图。他们公开宣布：他们的目的只有用暴力推翻全部现存的社会制度才能达到。让统治阶级在共产主义革命面前发抖吧。无产者在 ...