主题：2012 大选周记 之一 -- 切地雷

I have my bias too.Maybe I am more optimistic about China and more pessimitic about the US.

"...late 1960s. It took it more than 12 years to come back. ...1929 recession, which almost destroyed the nation. It took more than 15 years + WWII to come back to the normal track...This downturn for America will take a bit longer, 7-10 years will be normal, but fundamentals are still not fully corrupted there."

-- I also believe the U.S. ecomony will bounce back 7-10 year down the road because its fundamentals are still there NOW. That is why I am buying houses in the U.S. as investments.

However, 30 years later, with the fundamental demographic change (Black+Hispanic>White+Asian), the American as a people will not be the same as what it was in 1920s and 1960s. Not monetary or other policies can change that.Sir Arthur Lewis, who won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics, said that base on his lifelong research there is only one factor determining a country's economic development - work ethics.Blacks (more so) and hispanics are simply not comparable to Whites and Asians in terms of work ethics and even IQ.

"I AM NOT SAYING CHINA WILL COLLAPSE. But big slowdown is inevitable and its banking system has ticking bombs there."

--Agree. The Chinese housing market is so risky. I travelled a lot in China and have not find any good deal that can march what I can find in the U.S. in terms of cash flow and rent to price ratio.

However, "肉烂在锅里"。As long as Chinese are Chinese, China will eventually rise up again as a superpower, with or without the current government.

30 years later, we will see a competition between a Chinese with 1.3 billion (?) people and a U.S. with about 450 Million with half of them being Black or Hispanic. Who is going to win?