主题：【原创】通往2012的船票 -- 万里风中虎

there will be divergence in opinions and interests among the top leadership team. Some of them will resort to the middle-layer of technocrats for support in this internal fight at the top level.

Thus a divided Central Bureau will naturally translate into the rise of technocrats and industry interests groups. Political elites are never a single block with consensus on everything.

The USSR collapsed exactly because the top leadership chose not to sit in the same boat. One hidden driver was the low oil price--> fiscal crisis inside the former USSR.

We have not seen division yet in China that's because the challenge is not severe enough and there is still no serious domestic economic or social turmoil. All Chinese should be grateful to former Premier Zhu since his detente policy with America and his financial reform in 1990s paved the way for the golden 10 years between 1999 to 2009. The last 10 years has been quite good in terms of economic growth (driven by an open market in US and Europe), no major bubble burst and relatively low inflation.

Let's wait and see what will happen when China's inflation rans out of control in the next 2 years.

The horse is already out of the barn...