主题：【原创】新年政治经济展望之五：国债陷阱（一） -- 井底望天

今天（4月6日）路透社有一篇综合报道：

《人民币的汇率可能要有变动》

【大意】人民币已经有20个月保持对美元的汇率稳定在6.83。近期内，市场期待人民币在今后12个月内会升值。关于人民币汇率升值的压力和预测大概有四种可能：

1. 恢复逐步调整人民币汇率：

可能性：很大（很多分析家期待北京会让人民币在今后12个月内升值3-4%）

2. 今年里保持人民币汇率不动

可能性：较小

3. 采取新的人民币汇率政策

可能性：比较小，但是在引起注意

4. 一次性大幅度调整

可能性：不可能

China may be closer to changing yuan policy

Published on Tue, Apr 06, 2010 at 10:27 | Updated at Tue, Apr 06, 2010 at 11:19 | Source : Reuters

By Jacqueline Wong and Kevin Yao

SHANGHAI/BEIJING, April 5 (Reuters) - The U.S. decision to delay a ruling on whether China manipulates its currency may have defused political tensions enough for Beijing to let the yuan resume appreciation as early as the next few months.

Beijing has flagged to Washington that foreign pressure may in fact stifle any yuan move, and it seems, the U.S. Treasury Department has understood that message.

China has effectively repegged its currency some 20 months ago around 6.83 to the dollar as the financial crisis spread and offshore forwards market has been reflecting expectations it will allow the yuan to rise again over the next 12 months.

Here is a look what Beijing might do in months ahead.

参见：

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/travel/china-may-be-closer-to-changing-yuan-policy_450184-0.html

&参见：

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-news/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=10437652

1. Resumption of Gradual Appreciation

Probability: Likely.

Many analysts expect Beijing to let the yuan start strengthening as early as in the second quarter and allow it to climb 3-4% over the 12 months.

2. De Facto Peg Maintained Throughout the Year

Probability: less likely.

3. New Exchange Rate Regime

Probability: Less likely but garnering attention

4. Big One-Time revaluation

Probability: Unlikely

• 昨天路透社有个综合报道：可能升3－4％
• 不完全假，Bloomberg和NYT都有报道：