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主题:【原创】地球还在变暖吗? -- 井底望天

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家园 这应该是大丑闻了

WWF2005年的这个报告,引用的是1999年的一个报告,但是没有具体出处。

In 1999, a report by the Working Group on Himalayan Glaciology (WGHG) of the International Commission for Snow and Ice (ICSI) stated: “glaciers in the Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the livelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 is very high”.

新科学家上的文章讲的是水资源减少。

The prediction that “glaciers in the region will vanish within 40 years as a result of global warming” and that the flow of Himalayan rivers will “eventually diminish, resulting in widespread water shortages” (New Scientist 1999; 1999, 2003) is equally disturbing.

现在IPCC正式报告上还没有更正。

冰川消融是没问题的

In 1998, researchers LA Owen and MC Sharma Showed, by studying the longitudinal profiles of the river, that between 1971 and 1996, the Gangotri Glacier had retreated by about 850 m. This would yield a post-1971 retreat rate of 34 m a year. For the post-1971 period, the 61-year (1935-1996) data of GSI too shows that the retreat rate is about 28 m/year, indicating a clear increase in the rate after 1971. The 1996-1999 data of Naithani and associates too matches this general trend of an increased rate.

整个报告将近一千页,到现在也就发现这么个低级错误。不容易了。

这个结论还没进入技术摘要和决策者摘要,算不上一个重要预测。

最大的丑闻还应该是一个重要编辑辞职的故事,那个要更严重。

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