主题：旧金山联储局主席5月初讲座摘要 -- AItom

联储在这个西部好像就是旧金山一个分舵，Janet Yellen毕业于Havard和Yale，去联储之前在Berkeley教书。老公是炸药奖George A. Akerlof， 瞧这一家子。

这次Janet和以前的同事和学生交流关于当前的经济形势，还算比较实事求是。摘录一些和大家分享。另，我做了一个录音，但是不知道怎么上传到版上。

1， 总体形势：最近终于有一些好消息，预示着“可能”到底部，但即使如此也不会是往常几次衰退的“V”型恢复，可能是“U”或者“L”，要有长期的准备。

2， 预计GDP增长率09年下半年变正，但是失业率在2010年会保持在9.5%的高水平。另：她认为如果算上“非自愿非全职“工作者，美国的实际失业率已经在14%的水平。

3， 接下来的主要风险来自于：1）商业地产的坏账， 2）东欧国家破产（主要对老欧洲有影响,规模在1.5万亿左右），3）主要的发展中国家出现经济大滑坡。

4，通胀还是通缩？Janet觉得通胀的可能性不大，因为1）消费欲望很低，美国家庭和公司需要修复他们的balance sheet, 2）流动性仍然很差，3）美联储对于控制通胀有很多的经验，4）最后她提到一个新工具，好像叫"debt Fed bill",这个是收缩流动性的好工具，但是需要国会修改相关规定才能使用，这个请知情的大牛说说。

通缩可能性比较大：1）工资水平不断下降，2）利率工具已经到极限，缺乏新的工具，这方面的经验也不足。担心陷入日本的情况。

记得的就是这些了。印象比较深的是：1）Janet坦诚商业地产的风险，却只字不提企业垃圾债的问题，估计是心比较虚；2）这次联储用了一系列的新工具，他们自己对这些工具的具体功效和副作用也不清楚，因为多次提到，觉得她确实对新工具心里没底，感觉大家都在一个uncharted territory；3）她认为“U”型恢复或者“L”型都有可能，应该是听到的美国高层言论中比较悲观的一个。

下面附Janet的简历（呵呵，一路学术界混上来）

This year Yellen is a voting member of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee, which sets benchmark interest rates in response to economic conditions. During her term, the committee has cut the federal funds rate to near zero in an effort to relieve a massive credit crunch. In response to the economic crisis, the committee also decided March 18 to purchase up to an additional $750 billion of mortgage-backed securities, bringing its total purchases of such securities to $1.25 trillion this year.

Yellen took office as president and CEO of the Twelfth District Federal Reserve Bank in San Francisco in 2004. A member of the Haas School faculty since 1980, she has written on a wide variety of macroeconomic issues, while specializing in the causes, mechanisms, and implications of unemployment.

She took a leave from Berkeley for five years in 1994, when she served as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and then as chair of the President's Council of Economic Advisers. She also chaired the Economic Policy Committee of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development from 1997 to 1999.

Yellen serves on the board of directors of the Pacific Council on International Policy. She has served as president of the Western Economic Association and as vice president of the American Economic Association, and was a fellow of the Yale Corporation, among other posts.

Yellen graduated summa cum laude from Brown University with a degree in economics in 1967, and received her PhD in economics from Yale University in 1971. She has received many awards, including the Wilbur Cross Medal from Yale in 1997 and an honorary doctor of laws degree from Brown in 1998.

• 【西河文萃】※ 西河文萃 第23期 上