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Thursday, July 22, 2004

Kirilenko, Randolph, Gasol going for the max

By Chad Ford

ESPN Insider

For those of you who believe that the NBA summer spending spree is about to

end now that almost all of the top free agents are locked up -- think again.

Lost in the midst of the flurry of signings and trades over the past week was

a quiet six-year, $37 million contract extension for Shane Battier.

Battier, the sixth pick in the 2001 draft, will be the first in a long line of

third-year veterans looking to cash in this summer before the current

collective bargaining agreement goes away. Fears that contracts will become

more restrictive, with fewer guaranteed years and smaller max ceilings, along

with fears that the luxury-tax threshold may become smaller, are forcing

agents into action.

"I think it behooves everyone to get something done now," Battier's agent, Lon

Babby, told Insider. "For the player, it may give them their last chance at a

long, guaranteed contract. For teams, it may be their last poker chip to

lock-up a guy they want long term."

"I think players really want the security," agent Marc Cornstein, who

represents Samuel Dalembert, told Insider. "I think, for the teams, there's

some concern about the number of teams that could be far enough under the cap

next season to make a substantial offer."

The Hawks, Bobcats, Bulls, Cavs, Warriors, Clippers, Nets, Blazers, Sonics and

Wizards could all be potentially far enough under the cap next season to make

a max contract offer to a player. However, the Bulls, Warriors, Nets, Sonics

and Wizards could end up using most of that space to extend their own players

before they hit restricted free agency.

Teams have until Oct. 29 to extend the contracts of players picked in the

first round of 2001 draft. Typically, a couple from an eligible draft class

receive max contract extensions, and several others receive healthy six-year

deals.

Last summer, only three players from the class of 2000, Mike Miller, Desmond

Mason and Jamaal Magloire, received long-term extensions. In each case, the

contracts they signed were for slightly more than the mid-level exception.

However, that draft class was considered especially weak. To date only one

player, No. 1 pick Kenyon Martin, has received a max contract out of the

class.

Two summers ago, by way of comparison, three players -- Steve Francis, Baron

Davis and Shawn Marion -- got max extensions. Four others -- Wally Szczerbiak,

Ron Artest, Jonathan Bender and Jeff Foster -- got significant long-term

contracts.

During the summer of 2001, four players received max extensions -- Antawn

Jamison, Vince Carter, Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce. Three others -- Jason

Williams, Michael Dickerson and Al Harrington -- garnered long-term deals.

But that's not even the entire story. Several of the players from the draft

classes of 1999 and 1998 held out for richer deals and got them in restricted

free agency after their fourth seasons.

Last summer, 1999 draftees Elton Brand, Richard Hamilton, Lamar Odom, Jason

Terry, Andre Miller, Corey Maggette, James Posey and Kenny Thomas nailed down

long-term deals.

Two years ago, 1998 alumni Mike Bibby, Raef LaFrentz, Larry Hughes, Bonzi

Wells, Matt Harpring and Ricky Davis got their money.

Who's likely to get an extension this fall? Insider did some snooping around

and identified a number of players with a good chance of getting an extension.

For the rest of the class, they'll be looking at restricted free agency next

summer.

Taking it to the max?

Andrei Kirilenko, F, Utah Jazz

Last year's stats: 16.5 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.8 bpg

The skinny: Kirilenko was actually drafted in the class of 1999, but he didn't

start his NBA career until 2001. Kirilenko has emerged as one of the most

versatile players in the game. Last season, he ranked fourth in the league in

the plus/minus stat behind just Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan and Shaquille

O'Neal. He does a little bit of everything for the Jazz and, at the age of

just 23, continues to improve each season. He even made the All-Star team last

year. He's the Jazz's best rebounder, shot blocker, defensive player and his

offense continues to emerge. Losing him would be devastating to the franchise.

He's the one Utah player with superstar potential. His agent will be looking

for a max-type deal to keep Kirilenko in Utah. Given the fact that GM Kevin

O'Connor paid Carlos Boozer six years, $68 million and Mehmet Okur six years,

$50 million, will he be able to argue?

Zach Randolph, PF, Blazers

Last year's stats: 20.1 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 48 percent shooting from the field

The skinny: Randolph was amazingly consistent last season. He ended up ranked

sixth in the league in rebounding and 17th in the league in points last year.

That's not too shabby for a 23-year-old power forward playing significant

minutes for the first time in his career. While the Blazers still have some

concerns about his maturity, there's no question that he's turning into one of

the most devastating low-post scorers in the game. If Kenyon Martin can get

the max averaging 16.7 ppg and 9.5 rpg -- how can you deny Randolph? The

Blazers love him, though they are obsessed with clearing cap room and may wait

until next summer to cut him a check.

Pau Gasol, PF, Grizzlies

Last year's stats: 17.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 48 percent shooting from the field

The skinny: Gasol's numbers were slightly down last season, but that had more

to do with Hubie Brown's deep rotation than it had to do with talent. Gasol

continues to make improvements on the court. He's gotten stronger, more

aggressive in the paint and came up big for the Grizzlies in their playoff

series with the Spurs, averaging a team-high 18.5 ppg. The Grizzlies still

have some questions about the 24-year-old Spaniard. He's still not a good

defender and needs to get stronger, but, in another few years, he should be

bulked up enough to play center. When he does, he'll be one of the best in the

game. Given the current market, Gasol, too, is probably a max player, though

that may be unlikely given the Grizzlies' current cap woes. If he got a Carlos

Boozer-type deal, he'd probably be happy.

Still a big deal

Tony Parker, PG, Spurs

Last year's stats: 14.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 45 percent shooting from the field

The skinny: Parker's a little tougher to figure. He was magnificent in the

Spurs' first playoff series versus the Grizzlies, averaging 21 ppg and 8 apg.

He cooled off considerably versus the Lakers once they ramped up the intensity

of their defense. But overall, Parker is the best young point guard prospect

in the NBA. He's just 22-years-old, has a championship ring and the ability to

do just about whatever he wants on the court. Given what Steve Nash pulled

down with the Suns, it's not out of the question for Parker to be looking for

a max-type deal. Had he been in this year's free-agent class, the Clippers,

Hawks, Jazz and Bobcats all may have thrown max deals his way based on his

age, potential and experience. Point guard is one of the hardest positions in

the league to fill and Parker's got the chance to be great. With that said,

the Spurs, who are more financially conservative than most, will be reluctant

to pay him that. Coach Gregg Popovich has a love-hate relationship with

Parker. A seven-year, $70 million contract (ie. Mike Bibby money) might be

more realistic if he wants to get locked up now. Otherwise, he'll be one of

the hottest free agents on the market next summer.

Samuel Dalembert, C, Sixers

Last year's stats: 8 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.3 bpg, 54 percent shooting from the field

The skinny: Look past the marginal season numbers to what Dalembert did the

last month of the season, when he was given real minutes. His 12.3 ppg, 12.4

rpg and jaw-dropping 4.4 bpg were down right amazing for a kid who was,

essentially, in his rookie season last year. Dalembert, who just turned 23,

really got his groove on as the season progressed and the Sixers know they

have something special. Teams have been ringing Billy King's phone off the

hook this summer in an attempt to land the 6-foot-11 Haitian. While you can

make all the caveats you want about how raw he is, his history of injuries and

his lack of inexperience, ask yourself . . . if Adonal Foyle can get a

contract starting at $6.5 million and Mehmet Okur can grab one at $6.6 -- what

should Dalemebert's contract look like? He outplayed both of them last year

and he has much more upside. If the Sixers don't pay, someone else will next

summer. Good, young, athletic centers don't come onto the market every day.

Richard Jefferson, SF, Nets

Last year's stats: 18.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 49 percent shooting from the field

The skinny: Jefferson is on the verge of becoming a star, and the Nets have to

lock him up this summer to avoid what happened with Kenyon Martin a few weeks

ago. Last summer, the team balked at paying Martin the max and decided to take

their chances in restricted free agency. Martin got a huge offer sheet from

the Nuggets, including a whopping $15 million signing bonus, and the Nets were

forced to agree to a sign-and-trade after they determined they couldn't match.

They can't let the same thing happen to Jefferson. The team has already stated

it wants to build around him. But will Bruce Ratner, who's getting the rep as

a cheapskate, really pay him the cash. Jefferson holds all the leverage here.

The Nets have to re-sign him. Jefferson, on the other hand, is probably better

served looking elsewhere next summer given the decline of the team. It may

cost the team near-max dollars to keep him.

Eddy Curry, C, Bulls

Last year's stats: 14.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 49 percent shooting from the field

The skinny: Bulls fans are rolling their eyes right about now. How can Curry,

who has been the definition of inconsistency throughout his short career,

really warrant a big contract extension? He doesn't. But that doesn't change

the fact that most teams see Curry's size, age and ability to score with his

back to the basket and start feeling faint. Even though he doesn't rebound,

doesn't play defense and seems to struggle with his conditioning, teams will

always overpay for a big guy. When the big guy is just 21, 6-foot-11, weighs

285 pounds and can run the floor -- they'll really overpay. Again, look at the

comps. Foyle and Okur both got deals that averaged more than $8 million per

season with smaller numbers than what Curry put up in Chicago last season. In

fact, his numbers in April, 18.5 ppg and 7 rpg, were nearing the impressive

level. The word is Curry, who obviously knows he's in a contract year, is

getting in shape and playing basketball every day this summer. If he blows up,

the Bulls are on the hook for the max. If they lock him up now, maybe a

seven-year, $60 to $65 million contract will get it done.

Mid-level or more?

Kwame Brown, F/C, Wizards

Last year's stats: 10.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 48 percent shooting from the field

The skinny: The former No. 1 pick had his moments last year. He averaged a

career-high 13.7 ppg in January, but slipped off a bit in February and March

despite the fact that his minutes actually went up. Brown is an enigma. He has

the body and talent to be a superstar. Does he have the head and the heart?

The Wizards still aren't sure. The fear, from Washington's side, is that he

blows up this year and they're forced to offer him a huge contract. If they

lock him up now, he'd have to be much more reasonable -- maybe somewhere in

the six years, $50 million range. Brown is gambling too. If he stinks again

this year, his value will begin to plummet.

Joe Johnson, G/F, Suns

Last year's stats: 16.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 4.4 apg, 43 percent shooting from the

field

The skinny: Once Stephon Marbury was sent packing, Johnson took his place as

Phoenix's go-to scorer in the backcourt, and he put up impressive numbers the

rest of the season. He averaged 17.9 ppg, 5 rpg and 5.4 apg after the All-Star

break and started to signs that he could be a future All-Star. So why is he

lumped with the rest of these guys? Two things plague Johnson. One, he's still

very inconsistent. In April alone he had five games in which he shot under 35

percent from the field. The Suns claim that they love him, but the fact that

they signed Quentin Richardson to an offer sheet is telling. One, they think

he'll be looking for much more money than they're willing to pay. Two, they

have some questions about his work ethic and his ability to focus during the

game. If he were willing to agree to Q numbers -- six years, $45 million --

they'd lock him up in heart beat. If he wants considerably more (and there are

signs he does), the Suns will probably try to trade him this summer to a team

more willing to take the financial hit.

Jason Richardson, SG, Warriors

Last year's stats: 18.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 44 percent shooting from the field

The skinny: Richardson improved in almost every aspect of his game last

season. He improved his scoring, mid-range shot and willingness to put the

ball on the floor and get to the line. For much of the season, he was the

team's most consistent scoring option. He's an excellent rebounder for a

guard. Here's the problem. There aren't a lot of teams that will pay big money

for a two guard who can't shoot the 3 (28 percent last season) and won't play

good defense. With second-year guard Mickael Pietrus in the fold, it's not

inconceivable that the Warriors will wait until next summer and take their

chances there. Then again, with Dan Fagan representing him, that could turn

out very messy for the Warriors.

Vladimir Radmanovic, F, Sonics

Last year's stats: 12 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 43 percent shooting from the field

The skinny: Radmanovic had his best season ever for the Sonics last season,

but the truth is he's playing out of position and wants a change of scenery if

he can get it. Realistically, Radmanovic is worth something above the

mid-level, but given his role in the Sonics' system, they won't see it that

way. Look for his agent to make big demands salary-wise. If the Sonics don't

cave (they probably won't), there will be a strong push to finally get him

traded while there's still a shot at getting some value back in return for

him.

Throw me a bone

Tyson Chandler, F/C, Bulls

Last year's stats: 6.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 42 percent shooting from the field

The skinny: Back problems kept Chandler on the shelf for much of the season.

When he's healthy, he's shown he can be an aggressive rebounder. However,

offensively he's still very raw. The back thing is also an enormous concern.

Chandler still has great potential, but he's got to stay healthy all season

and improve his offense to get anything more than some mid-level love next

season. Don't look for either side to cut a deal this summer. Chandler wants a

chance to prove himself and earn more cash, and the Bulls want a chance to

trade him if he does. Neither is possible if the two sides come to a contract

agreement.

Troy Murphy, PF, Warriors

Last year's stats: 10 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 44 percent shooting from the field

The skinny: He's coming off a pretty tough year in which a "stress reaction"

in his right ankle limited him to 28 games. The lackluster season was a blow

to Murphy, who put up very solid numbers (11.7 ppg, 10.2 rpg) during his

sophomore season. With Erick Dampier likely out, there will be a great

opportunity for Murphy to redeem himself next season. As it stands now, his

value isn't much higher than the mid-level. If he can duplicate his sophomore

season, however, he too could see a flood of cash roll his direction next

summer.

Jason Collins, C, Nets

Last year's stats: 5.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 42 percent shooting from the field

The skinny: He's been solid for the Nets the past couple of seasons, but still

hasn't broken out the way the Nets or everyone else thought he might. He's a

good back-up center who's been forced into a starting role because of the

Nets' lack of depth. With Serbian center Nenad Kristic coming to New Jersey

this year, his minutes could take a hit. Because of Collins' size and relative

durability, someone will give him a contract. However, the full mid-level is a

stretch at this point.

Jamaal Tinsley, PG, Pacers

Last year's stats: 8.8 ppg, 5.3 apg, 41 percent shooting from the field

The skinny: Tinsley had an up-and-down season for the Pacers. While he

dramatically improved his 3-point shooting, his assist numbers were at an

all-time low and his performance in the playoffs, especially against the

Pistons, left a lot to be desired. The Pacers are still out there looking for

another point guard, which is telling. While he should be able to secure a

nice deal based on comps like Rafer Alston (5 years, $21) and Troy Hudson (6

years, $38 million), it's not a given the Pacers will actually pay him.

Wait until next year: DeSagana Diop, C, Cavs; Brendan Haywood, C, Wizards;

Primoz Brezec, C, Pacers; Kedrick Brown, G/F, Sixers

Around the League

# A Damp free-agent market? With Rasheed Wallace now off the board, Erick

Dampier sits a top Insider's free-agent list. Where will he go? Dampier's

chances of landing on the Knicks took a huge blow on Tuesday when the Warriors

traded for Dale Davis. The Knicks were offering Nazr Mohammed and Othella

Harrington. Now, the Warriors no longer need or want Mohammed. That leaves

only the Hawks left offering him a contract anywhere near what the Knicks were

willing to pay (6 years, $71 million).

Dampier would consider the Hawks, even though they are rebuilding, because

it's closer to his home in Mississippi. It also why he had strong interest in

the Grizzlies. However, the Hawks are currently offering him only a three-year

contract at roughly the same numbers he gave up to become an unrestricted free

agent. They've made it clear they won't overpay, leaving Dampier with three

options. He can either try to convince the Warriors to do a sign-and-trade

with another team, go to the Hawks for three years and pocket roughly $24-$26

million, or go to a contender on a six-year deal for the mid-level and bring

home six years at roughly $37 million.

Given Dampier's age (30) and his history of injuries, he's probably better off

taking the mid-level contract. The Warriors are reluctant to take back any

large salaries at the moment. They talked with the Mavericks and Sixers about

deals that would ship Dampier and one bad contract out for the expiring

contract of either Glenn Robinson or Antoine Walker, but so far talks haven't

led anywhere.

It's unlikely he'll get another huge deal after his contract with the Hawks

expires in three years. Taking the mid-level might be Dampier's best chance of

landing a solid long-term contract with a team that could give him a ring

someday. If he's interested, a number of teams, including the Pacers, Blazers,

Suns and Timberwolves, would show interest.

# Nets still haggling over Shareef: The Nets are still talking to the Blazers

about a trade that would send Shareef Abdur-Rahim to New Jersey for Kerry

Kittles and Aaron Williams. The sticking point, according to a league source,

is draft picks. The Nets are willing to give up a first-rounder, but they want

it to be the Nuggets' pick they acquired in the Kenyon Martin trade.

#

The Blazers, on the other hand, want one of the other two picks the Nets

received in the trade -- either the Sixers' or the Clippers'. So far the Nets

are balking at the proposal.

However, if you're Rod Thorn, trading for Reef may be the only way to calm

Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson at this point. Given how valuable they are to

the team, one first-round pick, when you're hoarding three, may be worth it,

don't you think?

# Isiah: I have mixed feelings about John Paxson's reluctance to ship Jamal

Crawford off to the Knicks. On one hand, I admire him for not giving in to the

ranting and ravings of Isiah Thomas and Crawford's agent, Aaron Goodwin, on

the subject. Paxson doesn't owe them anything. If the trade doesn't work for

the Bulls (and it doesn't according to how Isiah's putting it together), then

he shouldn't pull the trigger.

One the other hand, Paxson may be the only one who can put the rest of us out

of our misery on this whole sordid affair. The New York and Chicago papers are

running daily updates -- usually with Isiah or Goodwin running at the mouth --

about a trade that by all objective accounts seems to be going nowhere.

"I'm still trying to make a deal," Thomas told the Chicago Sun Times. "I'm not

trying to be emotional, not trying to make a name for myself and show somebody

up. I've made a lot of deals already in my previous jobs in building the

Toronto Raptors expansion team, in running that club and coaching the Indiana

Pacers."

Huh? I'm sure that convinced Paxson to pull the trigger Isiah.

# What are the Warriors up to? The Warriors made a solid trade on Tuesday when

they shipped Nick Van Exel to the Blazers for Dale Davis and Dan Dickau. They

killed two birds with one stone in the trade. They found a hard-working,

back-up center for Adonal Foyle, and they got rid of a headache in Van Exel.

#

However, let's not forget that around this time last year, the Warriors were

talking up Van Exel as the savior of the franchise. The trade that sent Antawn

Jamison, Danny Fortson and Jiri Welsch to Dallas for Van Exel turned out to be

a disaster for the Warriors. They essentially swapped Jamison (good player,

bad contract), Fortson (bad player, bad contract) and Welsch (good player,

great contract) for Davis (ancient player, short contract) and Evan Eschmeyer

(injured player, bad contract). Ugh.

That was Chris Mullin's first big trade, and we're willing to give him a

little slack. He did put the Warriors is a better cap position . . . one that

he's hurt, in part, by overpaying for veterans like Adonal Foyle and Derek

Fisher. From the looks of things, Mullin is trying to fill his team with

hard-working, defensive-minded veterans who aren't afraid to lead. Foyle,

Fisher and Davis all fit in that category.

The Warriors will be better defensively next season. They will play hard if

Mike Montgomery has anything to say about it. The problem is that the team

just doesn't have enough talent to compete in the West. I can't find anyone in

the league in love with Jason Richardson and Mike Dunleavy, the Warriors' best

two offensive options.

I like the idea of emulating what the Pistons and Grizzlies have done with

depth and blue collar-type players. Add Mickael Pietrus, Cliff Robinson and

Troy Murphy to their blue collar core of Foyle, Fisher and Davis, and the

Warriors have plenty of grit. But the Pistons and Grizzlies have got it done,

in part, with some impressive talent and without really overpaying for players

(we'll ignore the Brian Cardinal signing for a second).

What's most troubling about the Warriors' signings this year is the fact that

the money they spent on Fisher and Foyle is close to what they could've gotten

Dampier and Cardinal back for. Given that Dampier and Cardinal are far

superior to the Fisher and Foyle, I don't understand the thinking. It's one

thing to cut cap. It's another to let two players go and spend similar money

on two inferior ones. The Warriors have upgraded a key component of their team

this summer. But they've done by jettisoning off more talented players in

return. There's got to be a fine line between role players and stars on a

team. The Warriors have yet to find it.

As for the Blazers, who knows what they're up to. After reaching incredibly

for Sebastian Telfair in the draft, they're now all but acknowledging the fact

that he'll be nothing more than a bookend at the end of the bench this season.

Van Exel, when he's healthy and his minutes are limited, is still one of the

most explosive scorers in the league. But the team left itself vulnerable in

the middle when it made the trade. Theo Ratliff is the starting, but given his

injury history, do you really want just Vladimir Stepania backing him up?

# It's Snowing in Cleveland: I almost love the Eric Snow-to-Cleveland trade

for the Cavs. Had they kept Carlos Boozer (sorry to rub it in Cavs fans) you

could argue that the Cavs added the last piece of the puzzle for a long,

serious playoff run next spring.

#

Without Boozer, however, the deal doesn't make as much sense. Snow is a very

solid point guard and an upgrade to Jeff McInnis. But he's getting older and

has an expensive five years left on his contract. The fact that the Rockets

balked at taking on his contract despite the fact that they have no point

guard and are making a run at the Finals is telling.

The offseason isn't over for Cleveland, however. The word is that Vin Baker's

in town this week to talk to Jim Paxson. In the history of bad ideas, adding

Baker to replace Boozer is up there with the "Let's take Trajan Langdon over

Corey Maggette or Ron Artest" winner that Paxson came up with in 1999.

A better idea is to work something out with Orlando for Drew Gooden. Gooden

isn't as tough or gritty as Boozer, but he's talented and has shown some

promise at the four. The problem is, the Magic want Tony Battie back in

return. That's not the best trade in the world for the Cavs, especially given

the injury history of Zydrunas Ilgauskas.

The Snow trade is a little more perplexing from the Sixers' point of view. I

understand their rationale. Jim O'Brien loves Willie Green and wants to insert

him in the starting lineup with Allen Iverson. Green, one of the Sixers'

second-round picks last season, has been great in the summer leagues and has a

real knack for scoring. O'Brien believes that his system doesn't need a true

point guard, and has somehow fallen in love with the idea of Iverson and Green

jacking up 45 to 50 shots a night combined. If Glenn Robinson is playing -- or

if they land Antoine Walker -- that's going to borderline on the comical side.

However, the fact that Kevin Ollie's contract runs for four more years means

that the Sixers are getting marginal cap savings by making the trade. Surely

there was something better out there for Snow than Kevin Ollie.

# Pistons strike gold again: Leave it to Pistons president Joe Dumars to

instill some sanity back into the free-agent market. His five-year, $57

million deal with Rasheed Wallace is the most rational contract that's come

along this summer. It's a great deal for the Pistons (given the comps that

were out there) and a good deal for Sheed (given his less-than-stellar

attitude in the past).