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主题：【原创】数字左右社会科学 -- 同人于野
> 实际情况是坐飞机比去机场开车的路上要安全的多
This claim is simply wrong.
Yes, airplane is much safer than cars--when we compare the accident rate per vehicle mile. So planes are much safer than cars when covering the same distance. Say, from San Francisco to New York, it is much safer to fly than to drive through the continent.
But if you only drive 10 miles to the airport to take a 10,000 mile flight, you can do the math and find out that a 10 mile car ride is safer than the 10,000 mile flight.
The devil is in the details. LZ just gave us an example of the danger of over-generalization.
- 相关回复 上下关系8
压缩 3 层
🙂呵呵 踏翅 字87 2009-01-21 21:14:55
🙂什么东西最好都不要神圣化和扩大化了 12 大熊甲 字1953 2009-01-21 16:55:34
🙂直觉是靠不住的 1 同人于野 字492 2009-01-22 08:09:27
🙂你强调数字，自己却举出不看数字瞎忽悠的例子
🙂I got the math。 同人于野 字343 2009-02-16 08:15:42
🙂关键不在于直觉靠的住靠不住 踏翅 字50 2009-01-23 00:58:45
🙂人的直觉判断也是一种统计学推理过程 3 Rusher 字1046 2009-01-27 08:26:36
🙂对以下判断表示怀疑 2 踏翅 字291 2009-01-27 23:39:44