主题：【原创】关于世界经济周期的相关证据（1） -- 万里风中虎

我最爱的一段电影台词，取自《华尔街》：

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaKkuJVy2YA

Gordon Gekko: [at the Teldar Paper stockholder's meeting] Well, I appreciate the opportunity you're giving me Mr. Cromwell as the single largest shareholder in Teldar Paper, to speak. Well, ladies and gentlemen we're not here to indulge in fantasy but in political and economic reality. America, America has become a second-rate power. Its trade deficit and its fiscal deficit are at nightmare proportions. Now, in the days of the free market when our country was a top industrial power, there was accountability to the stockholder. The Carnegies, the Mellons, the men that built this great industrial empire, made sure of it because it was their money at stake. Today, management has no stake in the company! All together, these men sitting up here own less than three percent of the company. And where does Mr. Cromwell put his million-dollar salary? Not in Teldar stock; he owns less than one percent. You own the company. That's right, you, the stockholder. And you are all being royally screwed over by these, these bureaucrats, with their luncheons, their hunting and fishing trips, their corporate jets and golden parachutes.

Cromwell: This is an outrage! You're out of line Gekko!

Gordon Gekko: Teldar Paper, Mr. Cromwell, Teldar Paper has 33 different vice presidents each earning over 200 thousand dollars a year. Now, I have spent the last two months analyzing what all these guys do, and I still can't figure it out. One thing I do know is that our paper company lost 110 million dollars last year, and I'll bet that half of that was spent in all the paperwork going back and forth between all these vice presidents. The new law of evolution in corporate America seems to be survival of the unfittest. Well, in my book you either do it right or you get eliminated. In the last seven deals that I've been involved with, there were 2.5 million stockholders who have made a pretax profit of 12 billion dollars. Thank you.

I am not a destroyer of companies. I am a liberator of them! The point is, ladies and gentleman, that greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right, greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed, in all of its forms; greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind. And greed, you mark my words, will not only save Teldar Paper, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA. Thank you very much.

Gordon Gekko: Greed is good.

赞同与否，必须承认，人类的贪欲，在加以节制（道德体系，制度安排）的前提下，确实促进人类的进步。

关于CDO与CDS，崩溃是必然的，因为它们一开始太成功，以至于数量爆炸性增长。我手头有份美林的资料，信用衍生品市场用了6年时间容量就达到了股票市场近100多年发展出的规模。要知道衍生品是要有基础产品(underlying)的，现在衍生品规模比基础产品还大，不出问题就见鬼了。

很不幸，本来想用来减少风险的产品最终由于太成功而规模失控。上文提到的函数最终变成了10*sin(0.5x)+exp(x)，波谷确实被延后，但大大加深了。

• 贪婪未必是坏事，重要的是监管机制
• 贪婪是社会进步的原动力