主题：【原创】中国产生世界级企业的路径选择（一） -- 陈经

8月10号的英国金融时报。

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中国势将于明年超过美国，成为全球最大的制造国，这比预期提前了4年。

　　这一巨大飞跃是由美国经济咨询公司环球透视(Global Insight)向英国《金融时报》提供的预测所显示的。 中国明年将占全球11.783万亿美元制造业增加值的17%，而美国将占16%。

　　去年，美国仍轻松名列榜首，占全球总值的五分之一。中国位居第二，占13.2%。

　　总部位于华盛顿的行业组织——全国制造商协会(National Association of Manufacturers)主席约翰·恩格勒(John Engler)淡化了这些预测的影响。他表示，中国由于其规模而“不可避免”会赶超。“这对美国应当是有益的，因为这既有利于全球人口最多国家的政治稳定，又意味着美国继续拥有向这一全球发展最快的经济体出口及投资的机会。”

　　就在去年，全球透视的经济学家仍预测，美国会将其领先地位维持到2013年，但对其今明两年估计产出的大幅下调，预计会导致美国名次比原来的预期更快下滑。

　　这些数据凸现了中国以制造业为主导的经济在过去20年的飞速发展。1990年，在经济改革开始奏效之前，中国仅占全球制造业的3%。

　　制造业在2007年仅占全球国内生产总值的17.5%，但零售业、分销业、运输业及通信业等比重大得多的服务业的大量活动，都要依赖制造业。

　　这个预测中的变化，将终结美国100多年的支配地位。按经济历史学家的说法，这将使中国回归其在大约1840年之前占据了约1800年的地位。1840年，英国在工业革命后成为全球最大制造国。

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China to overtake US as largest manufacturer

By Peter Marsh in London

Published: August 10 2008 22:37 | Last updated: August 10 2008 22:37

China is set to overtake the US next year as the world’s largest

producer of manufactured goods, four years earlier than expected, as a

result of the rapidly weakening US economy.

The great leap is revealed in forecasts for the Financial Times by

Global Insight, a US economics consultancy. According to the

estimates, next year China will account for 17 per cent of

manufacturing value-added output of $11,783bn and the US will make 16

per cent.

John Engler, president of the National Association of Manufacturers, a

Washington-based trade group, played down the effect of the

projections. It was “inevitable” that China would take over on account

of its size, he said. “This should be a wholesome development for the

US, for it promises both political stability for the world’s largest

country and continuing opportunities for the US to export to, and

invest in, the world’s fastest-growing economy.”

As recently as last year, Global Insight economists predicted that the

US would retain the top position until 2013, but a large downward

revision in likely output this year and next is expected to cause the

US to slip more quickly than had been expected.

The data underline the surge of China’s manufacturing-led economy in

the past 20 years. In 1990, before economic reforms began to work, it

accounted for a meagre 3 per cent of global manufacturing.

Manufacturing accounted for just 17.5 per cent of global gross

domestic product in 2007, but much activity in the considerably larger

area of services, for instance in retailing, distribution, transport

and communications, depends on it.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2aa7a12e-6709-11dd-808f-0000779fd18c.html